射击高或低：国家从进入无关的活动中受益吗？
Shooting High or Low: Do Countries Benefit from Entering Unrelated Activities?
摘要：
各国往往通过进入与其当前出口相关的产品来实现出口多样化。然而，这种平均行为并不能代表每一种多样化路径，在本文中，我们介绍了一种方法来确定国家进入不相关产品的时期。我们分析了1965年至2014年间93个国家的经济多样化路径，发现只有约7.2%的国家进入了不相关的产品。我们发现，当一个国家处于中等经济发展水平，人力资本水平较高时，它们会进入更多不相关的产品。最后，我们要问的是，进入更多不相关产品的国家是否比只进入相关产品的国家增长更快。数据显示，与收入、人力资本、人均资本存量和经济复杂性水平相似的国家相比，从事更多不相关活动的国家未来经济增长会有小幅但显著的增长。
英文摘要：
Countries tend to diversify their exports by entering products that are related to their current exports. Yet this average behavior is not representative of every diversification path. In this paper, we introduce a method to identify periods when countries enter unrelated products. We analyze the economic diversification paths of 93 countries between 1965 and 2014 and find that countries enter unrelated products in only about 7.2% of all observations. We find that countries enter more unrelated products when they are at an intermediate level of economic development, and when they have higher levels of human capital. Finally, we ask whether countries entering more unrelated products grow faster than those entering only related products. The data shows that countries that enter more unrelated activities experience a small but significant increase in future economic growth, compared to countries with a similar level of income, human capital, capital stock per worker, and economic complexity.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
