Urban transportation systems are vulnerable to congestion, accidents, weather, special events, and other costly delays. Whereas typical policy responses prioritize reduction of delays under normal conditions to improve the efficiency of urban road systems, analytic support for investments that improve resilience (defined as system recovery from additional disruptions) is still scarce. In this effort, we represent paved roads as a transportation network by mapping intersections to nodes and road segments between the intersections to links. We built road networks for 40 of the urban areas defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. We developed and calibrated a model to evaluate traffic delays using link loads. The loads may be regarded as traffic-based centrality measures, estimating the number of individuals using corresponding road segments. Efficiency was estimated as the average annual delay per peak-period auto commuter, and modeled results were found to be close to observed data, with the notable exception of New York City. Resilience was estimated as the change in efficiency resulting from roadway disruptions and was found to vary between cities, with increased delays due to a 5% random loss of road linkages ranging from 9.5% in Los Angeles to 56.0% in San Francisco. The results demonstrate that many urban road systems that operate inefficiently under normal conditions are nevertheless resilient to disruption, whereas some more efficient cities are more fragile. The implication is that resilience, not just efficiency, should be considered explicitly in roadway project selection and justify investment opportunities related to disaster and other disruptions.
We proposed a Bayesian Network Model (BNM) based on function-oriented resilience framework and ontological interdependence among 10 system qualities to probabilistically assess the general resilience of the road transportation system in Beijing from 1997 to 2016. We tested the model with multi-source data collected from various sectors. The system qualities were examined by analysis of sensitivity and influence. The result shows that the general resilience of Beijing's road system exhibits a "V" shape in its trend, with the probability of being generally resilient between 50% and 70%, and at i…
Disruptions to transportation networks are inevitable. Currently, most mandated development-related transportation planning is intended to prepare for frequently occurring and observable disruptions while low probability events that have not yet materialized attract less attention. When road networks are not resilient, these unpredictable events can cause significant delays that may not be proportional to the extent of the disruption. Enhancing resilience can help in mitigating consequences of disruptions but requires financial investment that is difficult to justify given that low probability…
This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian network model (BNM) to quantitatively evaluate the resilience of urban transportation infrastructure. Based on systemic thinkings and sustainability perspectives, we investigate the long-term resilience of the road transportation systems in four cities of China from 1998 to 2017, namely Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing, respectively. The model takes into account the factors involved in stages of design, construction, operation, management, and innovation of urban road transportation, which collected from multi-source data platforms. We test …
The objective of this study is to propose a system-level framework with quantitative measures to assess the resilience of road networks. The framework proposed in this paper can help transportation agencies incorporate resilience considerations into project development proactively and to understand the resilience performance of current road networks effectively. This study identified and implemented four quantitative metrics to classify the criticality of road segments based on critical dimensions of road network resilience, and two integrated metrics were proposed to combine all metrics to sh…
Modern world builds on the resilience of interdependent infrastructures characterized as complex networks. Recently, a framework for analysis of interdependent networks has been developed to explain the mechanism of resilience in interdependent networks. Here we extend this interdependent network model by considering flows in the networks and study the system's resilience under different attack strategies. In our model, nodes may fail due to either overload or loss of interdependency. Under the interaction between these two failure mechanisms, it is shown that interdependent scale-free network…
This research presented a novel resilience-based framework to support resilience planning regarding pre-disaster mitigation and post-disaster recovery. First, the author proposes a new performance metric for transportation network, weighted number of independent pathways (WIPW), integrating the network topology, redundancy level, traffic patterns, structural reliability of network components, and functionality of the network during community's post-disaster recovery in a systematical way. To the best of our knowledge, WIPW is the only performance metric that permits risk mitigation alternative…
This article proposes a method to quantitatively measure the resilience of transportation systems using GPS data from taxis. The granularity of the GPS data necessary for this analysis is relatively coarse; it only requires coordinates for the beginning and end of trips, the metered distance, and the total travel time. The method works by computing the historical distribution of pace (normalized travel times) between various regions of a city and measuring the pace deviations during an unusual event. This method is applied to a dataset of nearly 700 million taxi trips in New York City, which i…
Designing and maintaining resilient transportation systems rely on identifying potential vulnerabilities and inefficiencies before crises occur. However, given the complexity of transportation networks, as well as the diversity of ways in which systems can fail, the problem of assessing the impacts of exceptional phenomena still lacks tools and metrics for analysis. Therefore, this paper aims to present a method for assessing the behavior of road networks during crises in which segments are disabled or unusable for a time. The method proposed was structured around two metrics calculated from t…
This study introduces a comprehensive stage-wise decision framework to support resilience planning for roadway networks regarding pre-disaster mitigation (Stage I), post-disaster emergency response (Stage II) and long-term recovery (Stage III). Three decision metrics are first defined, each based on a derivation of the number of independent pathways (IPW) within a roadway system, to measure the performance of a network in term of its robustness, redundancy, and recoverability, respectively. Using the three IPW-based decision metrics, a stage-wise decision process is then formulated as a stocha…
Distributions of the resilience of transport networks are studied numerically, in particular the large-deviation tails. Thus, not only typical quantities like average or variance but the distributions over the (almost) full support can be studied. For a proof of principle, a simple transport model based on the edge-betweenness and three abstract yet widely studied random network ensembles are considered here: Erdoes-Renyi random networks with finite connectivity, small world networks and spatial networks embedded in a two-dimensional plane. Using specific numerical large-deviation techniques, …
The rise of connected and autonomous vehicles, combined with the proliferation of IoT and connected surfaces, lead to the emergence of novel complex cyber risks. Lack of encryption and authentication in internal vehicular networks are widely recognized as cause for concern by cybersecurity experts, automobile, and OEM manufacturers. This concern has only been growing with the increase in cybersecurity incidents and demonstrations showing different vehicular vulnerabilities, making it nearly impossible to completely secure vehicles against cyber-attacks. Of particular concern is the potential f…
We present a comparative network theoretic analysis of the two largest global transportation networks: The worldwide air-transportation network (WAN) and the global cargoship network (GCSN). We show that both networks exhibit striking statistical similarities despite significant differences in topology and connectivity. Both networks exhibit a discontinuity in node and link betweenness distributions which implies that these networks naturally segragate in two different classes of nodes and links. We introduce a technique based on effective distances, shortest paths and shortest-path trees for …
Natural hazards including floods can trigger catastrophic failures in interdependent urban transport network-of-networks (NoNs). Population growth has enhanced transportation demand while urbanization and climate change have intensified urban floods. However, despite the clear need to develop actionable insights for improving the resilience of critical urban lifelines, the theory and methods remain underdeveloped. Furthermore, as infrastructure systems become more intelligent, security experts point to the growing threat of targeted cyber-physical attacks during natural hazards. Here we develo…
Many real systems such as, roads, shipping routes, and infrastructure systems can be modeled based on spatially embedded networks. The inter-links between two distant spatial networks, such as those formed by transcontinental airline flights, play a crucial role in optimizing communication and transportation over such long distances. Still, little is known about how inter-links affect the resilience of such systems. Here, we develop a framework to study the resilience of interlinked spatially embedded networks based on percolation theory. We find that the inter-links can be regarded as an exte…
The COVID19 pandemic has highlighted the lack of resilience in supply chains, as global networks fail from disruptions at single nodes and connections. Through an overview of the existing vaccine and pharmaceutical supply chain publications focusing on resilience, as well as recent papers reporting modeling of resilience in supply chains across multiple fields, we find that models for supply chain resilience are few and most of them are focused on individual dimensions of resilience rather than on comprehensive strategy necessary for scaling up vaccine production and distribution in emergency …
Modern society is increasingly massively connected, reflecting an omnipresent tendency to organize social, economic, and technological structures in complex networks. Recently, with the advent of the so-called multiplex networks, new concepts and tools were necessary to better understand the characteristics of this type of system, as well as to analyze and quantify its performance and efficiency. The concept of diversity in multiplex networks is a striking example of this intrinsically interdisciplinary efort to better understand the nature of complex networks. In this work, we introduce the M…
One of the most important tasks of urban and hazard planning is to mitigate the damages and minimize the costs of the recovery process after catastrophic events. The rapidity and the efficiency of the recovery process are commonly referred to as resilience. Despite the problem of resilience quantification has received a lot of attention, a mathematical definition of the resilience of an urban community, which takes into account the social aspects of a urban environment, has not yet been identified. In this paper we provide and test a methodology for the assessment of urban resilience to catast…
We perform a systematic analysis on the large-scale taxi trip data to uncover urban mobility and city dynamics in multimodal urban transportation environments. As a case study, we use the taxi origin-destination trip data and some additional data sources in Washington DC area. We first study basic characteristics of taxi trips, then focus on five important aspects. Three of them concern urban mobility, which are respectively mobility and cost including effect of traffic congestion, trip safety, and multimodal connectivity; the other two pertain to city dynamics, which are respectively transpor…
The air transportation network, a fundamental component of critical infrastructure, is formed from a collection of individual air carriers, each one with a methodically designed and engineered network structure. We analyze the individual structures of the seven largest passenger carriers in the USA and find that networks with dense interconnectivity, as quantified by large k-cores for high values of k, are extremely resilient to both targeted removal of airports (nodes) and random removal of flight paths paths (edges). Such networks stay connected and incur minimal increase in an heuristic tra…
The growth of transportation networks and their increasing interconnections, although positive, has the downside effect of an increasing complexity which make them difficult to use, to assess, and limits their efficiency. On average in the UK, 23% of travel time is lost in connections for trips with more than one mode, and the lack of synchronization decreases very slowly with population size. This lack of synchronization between modes induces differences between the theoretical quickest trip and the `time-respecting' path, which takes into account waiting times at interconnection nodes. We an…
Public transportation is a fundamental infrastructure for the daily mobility in cities. Although its capacity is prepared for the usual demand, congestion may rise when huge crowds concentrate in special events such as massive demonstrations, concerts or sport events. In this work, we study the resilience and recovery of public transportation networks from massive gatherings by means of a stylized model mimicking the mobility of individuals through the multilayer transportation network. We focus on the delays produced by the congestion in the trips of both event participants and of other citiz…
Mobility resilience refers to the ability of individuals to complete their desired travel despite unplanned disruptions to the transportation system. The potential of new on-demand mobility options, such as ridesourcing services, to fill unpredicted gaps in mobility is an underexplored source of adaptive capacity. Applying a natural experiment approach to newly released ridesourcing data, we examine variation in the gap-filling role of on-demand mobility during sudden shocks to a transportation system by analyzing the change in use of ridesourcing during unexpected rail transit service disrupt…
In this paper, we reveal the relationship between entropy rate and the congestion in complex network and solve it analytically for special cases. Finding maximizing entropy rate will lead to an improvement of traffic efficiency, we propose a method to mitigate congestion by allocating limited traffic capacity to the nodes in network rationally. Different from former strategies, our method only requires local and observable information of network, and is low-cost and widely applicable in practice. In the simulation of the phase transition for various network models, our method performs well in …
Uncoordinated individuals in human society pursuing their personally optimal strategies do not always achieve the social optimum, the most beneficial state to the society as a whole. Instead, strategies form Nash equilibria which are often socially suboptimal. Society, therefore, has to pay a price of anarchy for the lack of coordination among its members. Here we assess this price of anarchy by analyzing the travel times in road networks of several major cities. Our simulation shows that uncoordinated drivers possibly waste a considerable amount of their travel time. Counterintuitively,simply…
Planning scholars have identified economic, safety, and social benefits of converting one-way streets to two-way. Less is known about how conversions could impact vehicular distances traveled - of growing relevance in an era of fleet automation, electrification, and ride-hailing. We simulate such a conversion in San Francisco, California. We find that its current street network's average intra-city trip is about 1.7% longer than it would be with all two-way streets, corresponding to 27 million kilometers of annual surplus travel. As transportation technologies evolve, planners must consider di…
The structure, interdependence, and fragility of systems ranging from power grids and transportation to ecology, climate, biology and even human communities and the Internet, have been examined through network science. While the response to perturbations has been quantified, recovery strategies for perturbed networks have usually been either discussed conceptually or through anecdotal case studies. Here we develop a network science-based quantitative methods framework for measuring, comparing and interpreting hazard responses and as well as recovery strategies. The framework, motivated by the …
The goals of this paper are to present criteria, that allow to a priori quantify the attack stability of real world correlated networks of finite size and to check how these criteria correspond to analytic results available for infinite uncorrelated networks. As a case study, we consider public transportation networks (PTN) of several major cities of the world. To analyze their resilience against attacks either the network nodes or edges are removed in specific sequences (attack scenarios). During each scenario the size S(c) of the largest remaining network component is observed as function of…
In this paper, we are exploring strategies for the reduction of the congestion in the complex networks. The nodes without buffers are considered, so, if the congestion occurs, the information packets will be dropped. The focus is on the efficient routing. The routing strategies are compared using two generic models, i.e., Barabàsi-Albert scale-free network and scale-free network on lattice, and the academic router networks of the Netherlands and France. We propose a dynamic deflection routing algorithm which automatically extends path of the packet before it arrives at congested node. The simu…
Multimodal transportation systems can be represented as time-resolved multilayer networks where different transportation modes connecting the same set of nodes are associated to distinct network layers. Their quantitative description became possible recently due to openly accessible datasets describing the geolocalised transportation dynamics of large urban areas. Advancements call for novel analytics, which combines earlier established methods and exploits the inherent complexity of the data. Here, our aim is to provide a novel user-based methodological framework to represent public transport…
We apply statistical physics to study the task of resource allocation in random sparse networks with limited bandwidths for the transportation of resources along the links. Useful algorithms are obtained from recursive relations. Bottlenecks emerge when the bandwidths are small, causing an increase in the fraction of idle links. For a given total bandwidth per node, the efficiency of allocation increases with the network connectivity. In the high connectivity limit, we find a phase transition at a critical bandwidth, above which clusters of balanced nodes appear, characterised by a profile of …
