经济系统增长动态的普遍波动
Universal fluctuations in growth dynamics of economic systems
摘要：
商业公司的增长是一个复杂的相互作用单元系统的一个例子，类似于自然界中复杂的相互作用系统，如地震。值得注意的是，经济物理学的工作提供了证据，证明企业增长的统计特性遵循着描述临界点附近物理系统特征的同样的幂律。考虑到经济如何随时间变化，这些统计特性是否像物理系统一样持久、稳健和普遍，仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。在这里，我们表明，以前在1974年至1993年期间公开交易的美国制造业公司中证明的公司增长的缩放特性适用于1993年至2015年的同类公司，适用于其他广泛部门（如材料）的公司，以及适用于新部门（如互联网服务）的公司。我们对1993年至2015年期间制造业的标度指数与1974年至1993年期间的标度指数几乎相同，对其他部门的标度指数与制造业的标度指数几乎相同。此外，我们发现，波动的增长率为新的产业自组织成一个幂律在相对较短的时间尺度。
英文摘要：
The growth of business firms is an example of a system of complex interacting units that resembles complex interacting systems in nature such as earthquakes. Remarkably, work in econophysics has provided evidence that the statistical properties of the growth of business firms follow the same sorts of power laws that characterize physical systems near their critical points. Given how economies change over time, whether these statistical properties are persistent, robust, and universal like those of physical systems remains an open question. Here, we show that the scaling properties of firm growth previously demonstrated for publicly-traded U.S. manufacturing firms from 1974 to 1993 apply to the same sorts of firms from 1993 to 2015, to firms in other broad sectors (such as materials), and to firms in new sectors (such as Internet services). We measure virtually the same scaling exponent for manufacturing for the 1993 to 2015 period as for the 1974 to 1993 period and virtually the same scaling exponent for other sectors as for manufacturing. Furthermore, we show that fluctuations of the growth rate for new industries self-organize into a power law over relatively short time scales.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
