控制复杂的政策问题：使用系统动力学和网络可控性的多方法论方法
Controlling complex policy problems: a multimethodological approach using system dynamics and network controllability
摘要：
尽管系统动力学在分析复杂的政策问题方面很有用，但政策设计远非直截了当，在许多情况下是试错驱动的。为了应对这一挑战，我们建议将系统动力学与网络可控性（网络科学的一个新兴领域）相结合，以便于检测系统动力学模型中的有效杠杆点，从而支持有影响力的政策的设计。我们通过分析一个经典的系统动力学模型来说明我们的方法：世界动力学模型。我们表明，它是足够的控制只有53%的变量，以引导整个系统到一个任意的最终状态。我们进一步排名的所有变量根据其重要性控制系统，我们验证我们的方法表明，高排名的变量有一个显着更大的影响系统的行为相比，低排名的变量。
英文摘要：
Notwithstanding the usefulness of system dynamics in analyzing complex policy problems, policy design is far from straightforward and in many instances trial-and-error driven. To address this challenge, we propose to combine system dynamics with network controllability, an emerging field in network science, to facilitate the detection of effective leverage points in system dynamics models and thus to support the design of influential policies. We illustrate our approach by analyzing a classic system dynamics model: the World Dynamics model. We show that it is enough to control only 53% of the variables to steer the entire system to an arbitrary final state. We further rank all variables according to their importance in controlling the system and we validate our approach by showing that high ranked variables have a significantly larger impact on the system behavior compared to low ranked variables.
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