强厄尔尼诺事件的可预测性
(Un)predictability of strong El Niño events
摘要：
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是赤道太平洋耦合大气/海洋系统中的一种年际变化模态。厄尔尼诺现象描述了一种状态，即东太平洋的海面温度上升，而较冷的深水上升流减少。厄尔尼诺事件通常在北方冬季达到高峰，但其强度在十年时间尺度上变化不规则。1982-83年，1997-98年和2015-16年发生了异常强烈的厄尔尼诺事件，影响了全球范围的天气。2014年广泛宣传的预测预测2015-16年的事件将提前一年发生。预测厄尔尼诺的强度是一个实际问题，因为它对世界各地的水文气候和农业产生影响。本文在混沌动力系统的背景下讨论了强厄尔尼诺事件的频率和规律性。我们发现了一个机制，限制了他们的可预测性的概念“充电振荡器”模式的ENSO。弱的季节强迫或噪声在这个模式中可以诱导在具有强厄尔尼诺事件的振荡状态和缺乏强事件的混沌状态之间的不规则切换。在这个制度中，强厄尔尼诺事件在十年时间尺度上的时间是不可预测的。
英文摘要：
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system. El Niño describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling of colder, deep waters diminishes. El Niño events typically peak in boreal winter, but their strength varies irregularly on decadal time scales. There were exceptionally strong El Niño events in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 that affected weather on a global scale. Widely publicized forecasts in 2014 predicted that the 2015-16 event would occur a year earlier. Predicting the strength of El Niño is a matter of practical concern due to its effects on hydroclimate and agriculture around the world. This paper discusses the frequency and regularity of strong El Niño events in the context of chaotic dynamical systems. We discover a mechanism that limits their predictability in a conceptual "recharge oscillator" model of ENSO. Weak seasonal forcing or noise in this model can induce irregular switching between an oscillatory state that has strong El Niño events and a chaotic state that lacks strong events, In this regime, the timing of strong El Niño events on decadal time scales is unpredictable.
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