生物技术和技术文明的寿命
Biotechnology and the lifetime of technical civilizations
摘要：
迄今为止，能够终结地球技术文明的人还很少。新兴的双重用途技术，如生物技术，可能会给成千上万或数百万人带来类似的权力。为了定量地研究这种显著的转变对地球和地外技术文明生存的影响，本文提出了一个文明寿命的双参数模型，即德雷克方程中的数量$L$，用于描述地外文明的交流数量。一个参数表征了一个文明的生物技术的人口致命性，另一个参数表征了该文明的心理社会学。证明了$L$小于这两个参数乘积的倒数。使用Pubmed的经验数据来告知生物技术参数，该模型预测人类文明的中位生存时间为数十年至数百年，即使具有乐观的心理社会学参数值，从而将生物技术定位为对人类文明的直接威胁。对于一个具有一定平均生存时间的文明群体，该模型预测，在80倍的持续时间之后，$10^{24}$文明中只有一个会生存下来--这种筛选的速度和程度与汉森的“大过滤器”相一致。“因此，假设文明普遍发展先进的生物技术，在他们成为充满活力的星际殖民者之前，这个模型为费米悖论提供了一个解决方案。
英文摘要：
The number of people able to end Earth's technical civilization has heretofore been small. Emerging dual-use technologies, such as biotechnology, may give similar power to thousands or millions of individuals. To quantitatively investigate the ramifications of such a marked shift on the survival of both terrestrial and extraterrestrial technical civilizations, this paper presents a two-parameter model for civilizational lifespans, i.e. the quantity $L$ in Drake's equation for the number of communicating extraterrestrial civilizations. One parameter characterizes the population lethality of a civilization's biotechnology and the other characterizes the civilization's psychosociology. $L$ is demonstrated to be less than the inverse of the product of these two parameters. Using empiric data from Pubmed to inform the biotechnology parameter, the model predicts human civilization's median survival time as decades to centuries, even with optimistic psychosociological parameter values, thereby positioning biotechnology as a proximate threat to human civilization. For an ensemble of civilizations having some median calculated survival time, the model predicts that, after 80 times that duration, only one in $10^{24}$ civilizations will survive -- a tempo and degree of winnowing compatible with Hanson's "Great Filter." Thus, assuming that civilizations universally develop advanced biotechnology, before they become vigorous interstellar colonizers, the model provides a resolution to the Fermi paradox.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
