汇款与宏观经济变量的关系：在政治和社会动荡时期，突尼斯的阿拉伯之春的证据
Relationship between Remittances and Macroeconomic Variables in Times of Political and Social Upheaval: Evidence from Tunisia's Arab Spring
AI总结：
本文研究了政治和社会动荡时期汇款对经济增长和消费的影响，发现汇款在短期对投资有负面影响，长期对经济增长和消费有积极影响。
摘要：
如果突尼斯因其在经济、教育和其他指标上的高排名而被视为成功故事，2011年民众起义则凸显了政治改革和重大经济改革的必要性。阿拉伯之春突显了其主要经济支柱，包括旅游业和外国直接投资的脆弱性。在动荡时期，本文研究了移民汇款的经济影响，预期具有逆周期行为。我们的结果表明，在阿拉伯之春之前，汇款对增长和消费的影响似乎为负和正，而对本地投资的影响则有所变化。这三种关系在短期内成立。通过考虑2011年起义期间的时期，汇款对投资的影响在短期和中期变得负面且弱，而在长期则发现汇款对增长和消费有积极且显著的影响。
英文摘要：
If Tunisia was hailed as a success story with its high rankings on economic, educational, and other indicators compared to other Arab countries, the 2011 popular uprisings demonstrate the need for political reforms but also major economic reforms. The Arab spring highlights the fragility of its main economic pillars including the tourism and the foreign direct investment. In such turbulent times, the paper examines the economic impact of migrant' remittances, expected to have a countercyclical behavior. Our results reveal that prior to the Arab Spring, the impacts of remittances on growth and consumption seem negative and positive respectively, while they varyingly influence local investment. These three relationships held in the short-run. By considering the period surrounding the 2011 uprisings, the investment effect of remittances becomes negative and weak in the short-and medium-run, whereas positive and strong remittances' impacts on growth and consumption are found in the long term.
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