预测户外气候下聚合物材料使用寿命的加速试验方法的发展
Development of an Accelerated Test Methodology to the Predict Service Life of Polymeric Materials Subject to Outdoor Weathering
摘要：
使用寿命预测对于涂料和其他聚合物材料的制造商非常重要。主要由紫外线（UV）辐射驱动的光降解是有机油漆和涂料以及由暴露于阳光下的聚合物材料制成的许多其他产品失效的主要原因。使用寿命预测的传统方法涉及在恶劣的UV环境中使用户外暴露（例如，佛罗里达州和亚利桑那州）。然而，这样的测试需要太多的时间（通常是许多年）来进行评估。非科学的尝试，简单地“加快时钟”导致错误的预测。本文介绍了一种基于科学的方法，利用实验室加速试验，及时预测户外使用寿命的统计方法。该方法涉及仔细的实验，并确定一个物理/化学动机的模型，将充分描述聚合物材料的光降解路径。该模型结合了解释变量紫外光谱，紫外强度，温度和湿度的影响。我们使用非线性混合效应模型来描述样本路径。该方法说明了与模型环氧树脂涂层的加速实验室测试数据。该方法的有效性检查，通过扩展我们的模型，以允许动态协变量和比较预测暴露在户外环境中的解释变量是不受控制的，但记录的标本。
英文摘要：
Service life prediction is of great importance to manufacturers of coatings and other polymeric materials. Photodegradation, driven primarily by ultraviolet (UV) radiation, is the primary cause of failure for organic paints and coatings, as well as many other products made from polymeric materials exposed to sunlight. Traditional methods of service life prediction involve the use of outdoor exposure in harsh UV environments (e.g., Florida and Arizona). Such tests, however, require too much time (generally many years) to do an evaluation. Non-scientific attempts to simply "speed up the clock" result in incorrect predictions. This paper describes the statistical methods that were developed for a scientifically-based approach to using laboratory accelerated tests to produce timely predictions of outdoor service life. The approach involves careful experimentation and identifying a physics/chemistry-motivated model that will adequately describe photodegradation paths of polymeric materials. The model incorporates the effects of explanatory variables UV spectrum, UV intensity, temperature, and humidity. We use a nonlinear mixed-effects model to describe the sample paths. The methods are illustrated with accelerated laboratory test data for a model epoxy coating. The validity of the methodology is checked by extending our model to allow for dynamic covariates and comparing predictions with specimens that were exposed in an outdoor environment where the explanatory variables are uncontrolled but recorded.
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