对Milky Way中假设的地外辐射源探测概率的信号覆盖方法
Signal coverage approach to the detection probability of hypothetical extraterrestrial emitters in the Milky Way
摘要：
由于缺乏证据证明外星生命的存在，即使是最简单的动物生命形式，也很难确定寻找外星智慧（SETI）是否是一种高风险，高回报的努力，而不是徒劳的尝试。在这里，我们坚持认为，即使地外文明确实存在并进行通信，探测到它们信号的可能性也取决于地球是否位于这些信号覆盖的星系区域内。通过考虑银河系中可能存在的独立发射体，我们建立了一个假设的外星信号所覆盖的域的统计模型，以推导出地球在这样一个域内的检测概率。我们表明，对于一般分布的信号寿命和方向性，可检测的发射器的平均数量小于1，即使检测概率高达50%，无论在星系中的发射器的数量。
英文摘要：
The lack of evidence for the existence of extraterrestrial life, even the simplest forms of animal life, makes it is difficult to decide whether the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) is more a high-risk, high-payoff endeavor than a futile attempt. Here we insist that even if extraterrestrial civilizations do exist and communicate, the likelihood of detecting their signals crucially depends on whether the Earth lies within a region of the galaxy covered by such signals. By considering possible populations of independent emitters in the galaxy, we build a statistical model of the domain covered by hypothetical extraterrestrial signals to derive the detection probability that the Earth is within such a domain. We show that for general distributions of the signal longevity and directionality, the mean number of detectable emitters is less than one even for detection probabilities as large as 50\%, regardless of the number of emitters in the galaxy.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
