标签：Drawing the Line
Redistricting: Drawing the Line
摘要：
我们开发方法来评估一个政治选区是否准确地代表了人民的意愿。为了探索和展示我们的想法，我们专注于美国众议院的国会选区，并使用北卡罗来纳州及其自2010年人口普查以来的重新划分。使用蒙特卡罗算法，我们随机生成超过24,000个重划选区，这些选区是无党派的，并遵守拟议立法的标准。将历史投票数据应用于这些随机重新划分的选区，我们发现，民主党和共和党当选代表的数量根据选区的划分方式而变化很大。有些结果更常见，我们得到了一个明确的预期选举结果范围。使用我们生成的选区重划的统计数据，我们批评了2012年和2016年NC选举中使用的特定国会选区，以及两党选区重划委员会提出的选区。我们发现，2012年和2016年的选区划分非常不典型，不能代表人民的意愿。另一方面，我们的研究结果表明，一个由两党退休法官组成的小组提出的计划具有高度的典型性和代表性。由于我们的分析是基于北卡罗来纳州合理的选区重新划分的集合，因此它们为特定的选举提供了一个基线，其中包含了该州总体分布的几何形状。
英文摘要：
We develop methods to evaluate whether a political districting accurately represents the will of the people. To explore and showcase our ideas, we concentrate on the congressional districts for the U.S. House of representatives and use the state of North Carolina and its redistrictings since the 2010 census. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm, we randomly generate over 24,000 redistrictings that are non-partisan and adhere to criteria from proposed legislation. Applying historical voting data to these random redistrictings, we find that the number of democratic and republican representatives elected varies drastically depending on how districts are drawn. Some results are more common, and we gain a clear range of expected election outcomes. Using the statistics of our generated redistrictings, we critique the particular congressional districtings used in the 2012 and 2016 NC elections as well as a districting proposed by a bipartisan redistricting commission. We find that the 2012 and 2016 districtings are highly atypical and not representative of the will of the people. On the other hand, our results indicate that a plan produced by a bipartisan panel of retired judges is highly typical and representative. Since our analyses are based on an ensemble of reasonable redistrictings of North Carolina, they provide a baseline for a given election which incorporates the geometry of the state's population distribution.
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