立陶宛议会选举的实证分析和基于代理的建模
Empirical analysis and agent-based modeling of Lithuanian parliamentary elections
摘要：
在这篇文章中，我们分析了1992年、2008年和2012年立陶宛议会选举期间各政党在各投票站的选票份额分布。我们发现该分布与Beta分布拟合得相当好。为了重现这一经验观察，我们提出了一个简单的多状态代理的投票行为模型。在所提出的模型中，代理人改变他们投票的政党，要么是特殊的，要么是由于线性招募机制。我们使用该模型来重现1992年选举期间观察到的投票份额分布。我们讨论了模型扩展需要重现在其他选举中观察到的投票份额分布。
英文摘要：
In this contribution we analyze a parties' vote share distribution across the polling stations during the Lithuanian parliamentary elections of 1992, 2008 and 2012. We find that the distribution is rather well fitted by the Beta distribution. To reproduce this empirical observation we propose a simple multi-state agent-based model of the voting behavior. In the proposed model agents change the party they vote for either idiosyncratically or due to a linear recruitment mechanism. We use the model to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the election of 1992. We discuss model extensions needed to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the other elections.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
