大都会区选举结果的普适标度律
Universal Scaling Laws in Metro Area Election Results
摘要：
我们解释了1948-2016年美国大选和2016年英国欧盟公投中大城市和农村地区之间选举结果的异常。标度曲线都是普适的，只依赖于一个参数，其中一方总是表现出超线性标度并驱动过程，而另一方的次线性指数仅仅是概率守恒的结果。基于最近开发的城市规模模型，我们给出了一个微观模型的选民行为，我们取代多样性表征人类在创造性方面的社会多样性和宽容。该模型还可以预测新的政治发展，如左派的分裂和“移民悖论”。
英文摘要：
We explain the anomaly of election results between large cities and rural areas in terms of urban scaling in the 1948-2016 US elections and in the 2016 EU referendum of the UK. The scaling curves are all universal and depend on a single parameter only, and one of the parties always shows superlinear scaling and drives the process, while the sublinear exponent of the other party is merely the consequence of probability conservation. Based on the recently developed model of urban scaling, we give a microscopic model of voter behavior in which we replace diversity characterizing humans in creative aspects with social diversity and tolerance. The model can also predict new political developments such as the fragmentation of the left and 'the immigration paradox'.
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