启发，测量偏差，检查先验数据冲突和Dirichlet先验推理
Elicitation, measuring bias, checking for prior-data conflict and inference with a Dirichlet prior
摘要：
方法开发用于引出一个狄利克雷先验的基础上的个人概率，持有虚拟的确定性的界限。这种方法来选择一个先验的列联表问题，它演示了如何评估的偏见，以及如何检查先验数据冲突。它表明，通过相对信念的假设的评估可以很容易地考虑到它意味着什么的虚假性的假设对应于一个差异的实际重要性，并提供证据，有利于一个假设。
英文摘要：
Methods are developed for eliciting a Dirichlet prior based upon bounds on the individual probabilities that hold with virtual certainty. This approach to selecting a prior is applied to a contingency table problem where it is demonstrated how to assess the bias in the prior as well as how to check for prior-data conflict. It is shown that the assessment of a hypothesis via relative belief can easily take into account what it means for the falsity of the hypothesis to correspond to a difference of practical importance and provide evidence in favor of a hypothesis.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
