《平价医疗法案》中收入转移方法的统计含义
Statistical Implications of the Revenue Transfer Methodology in the Affordable Care Act
摘要：
《平价医疗法案》（ACA）包括一个永久性的收入转移方法，为精算风险高于平均水平的健康保险计划提供财政激励。在本文中，我们得出了一些统计意义的收入转移方法在ACA。我们将给定市场中各个保险计划之间的收入转移视为随机变量，其中每个计划的收入转移金额以计划总保费的百分比来衡量。我们分析了这些随机变量的均值和方差，并从收入转移的零和性质推断出，相对于计划的总保费，收入转移支付的幅度没有限制。使用美国精算师学会和医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心提供的数据，我们获得了一个解释的经验现象，收入转移更多变，可以大大增加保险计划的市场份额较小。我们表明，它是经常的情况下，保险公司的市场份额下降，也将增加其收入转移的波动性。
英文摘要：
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) includes a permanent revenue transfer methodology which provides financial incentives to health insurance plans that have higher than average actuarial risk. In this paper, we derive some statistical implications of the revenue transfer methodology in the ACA. We treat as random variables the revenue transfers between individual insurance plans in a given marketplace, where each plan's revenue transfer amount is measured as a percentage of the plan's total premium. We analyze the means and variances of those random variables, and deduce from the zero sum nature of the revenue transfers that there is no limit to the magnitude of revenue transfer payments relative to plans' total premiums. Using data provided by the American Academy of Actuaries and by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, we obtain an explanation for empirical phenomena that revenue transfers were more variable and can be substantially greater for insurance plans with smaller market shares. We show that it is often the case that an insurer which has decreasing market share will also have increased volatility in its revenue transfers.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
