J.B.S.哈勒本可以做得更好

摘要：

在对J.B.S.与贝叶斯因子假设检验（arXiv：1511.08180）的发展相类似，Etz和Wagenmakers专注于Halfton在遗传示例中提出的混合物优先的命题（Halfton 1932，关于逆概率的说明。Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society，28，55-61.）.由于哈尔德斯从未跟进这些想法，很难衡量他的动机和意图。我认为，相反的Halfman的声明意图更换单位先验更合理的假设，他实际上选择了在这个例子中一个不合理的单位之前。考虑到现有的信息，以Halflit，我得出了一个优越的先验和Halflit的平坦的先验。Halfman的主要意图与他的文章似乎已经探索不同的参数区域的二项式和共轭β。此外，我同意Etz和Wagenmakers的观点，即Haldarin在他的遗传学例子中偶然采用了一个包含点质量和光滑分布的混合先验。

英文摘要：

In a review on the contribution of J.B.S. Haldane to the development of the Bayes factor hypothesis test (arXiv:1511.08180), Etz and Wagenmakers focus on Haldane's proposition of a mixture prior in a genetic example (Haldane 1932, A note on inverse probability. Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 28, 55-61.). As Haldane never followed up on these ideas, it is difficult to gauge his motivation and intentions. I argue that contrary to Haldane's stated intention of replacing flat priors with more reasonable assumptions, he actually chose in this example an unreasonable flat prior. Considering the information available to Haldane, I derive a superior prior and compare to Haldane's flat prior. Haldane's main intent with his article seems to have been to explore the different parameter regions of the binomial and the conjugate beta. Furthermore, I agree with Etz and Wagenmakers that Haldane serendipitously adopted a mixture prior comprising a point mass and smooth distribution in his genetic example.

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