基于Web搜索引擎的疫苗接种率时间序列自适应估计
Time-Series Adaptive Estimation of Vaccination Uptake Using Web Search Queries
摘要：
估计疫苗接种率是确保公共卫生的一个组成部分。最近的研究表明，疫苗接种率可以从网络数据中自动估计，而不是缓慢收集的临床记录或人口调查。这一领域的所有先前工作都假设从网络收集的疫苗接种吸收的特征是时间规律的。我们提出了有史以来第一个从疫苗接种率估计中去除这一假设的方法：我们的方法动态地适应用于估计疫苗接种率的时间序列网络数据的时间波动。我们展示了我们的方法，与不仅使用网络数据而且使用策划的临床数据的竞争基线相比，它的表现优于最先进的技术。对于因媒体负面关注（HPV-1和HPV-2）、疫苗供应问题（DiTeKiPol）和针对12岁儿童（与年幼儿童相比，其疫苗接种更不规则）而导致接种不规则的疫苗，这种性能改善更为明显。
英文摘要：
Estimating vaccination uptake is an integral part of ensuring public health. It was recently shown that vaccination uptake can be estimated automatically from web data, instead of slowly collected clinical records or population surveys. All prior work in this area assumes that features of vaccination uptake collected from the web are temporally regular. We present the first ever method to remove this assumption from vaccination uptake estimation: our method dynamically adapts to temporal fluctuations in time series web data used to estimate vaccination uptake. We show our method to outperform the state of the art compared to competitive baselines that use not only web data but also curated clinical data. This performance improvement is more pronounced for vaccines whose uptake has been irregular due to negative media attention (HPV-1 and HPV-2), problems in vaccine supply (DiTeKiPol), and targeted at children of 12 years old (whose vaccination is more irregular compared to younger children).
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