曼氏血吸虫病流行区人群感染率模型的建立
Modeling the prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni infection in an endemic population
摘要：
我们从理论上研究，如果治疗单独可以降低血吸虫病的感染人群的患病率，在一个持久的可持续的方式。我们使用一个非线性系统的常微分方程（SI系统与逻辑人口增长相结合），它描述了非感染和感染人口的时间演变，在恢复，感染和人口统计率。我们的模型得出的结论是，消除这种地方病的唯一途径是实施公共卫生政策，旨在治疗和环境。我们将我们的模型应用于巴西Virgem das Graças的流行区，该地区2001年血吸虫病的患病率超过50%。流行病学数据取自2001年至2010年在该地区进行的纵向研究，人口参数取自巴西官方人口数据。当输入这些估计参数时，我们的模型给出Virgem das Graças的极限患病率为11%，即使按照政府法规系统地进行治疗，这仍然是非常高的。这一估计再次强调，为了消除血吸虫病，旨在治疗、卫生（包括蜗牛控制）和健康教育方案的公共卫生政策是强制性的。
英文摘要：
We investigate theoretically if treatment alone can reduce the schistosomiasis's prevalence in an infected population, in a long-lasting sustainable way. We use a non-linear system of ordinary differential equations (a SI system combined with a logistic population growth) which describes the time evolution of the non-infected and infected populations, in terms of the recovering, infection, and demographic rates. Our model leads to the conclusion that the only way to eliminate this endemic disease is to implement public health policies aimed at both treatment and environment. We apply our model to the endemic area of Virgem das Graças, in Brazil, where the prevalence of Schistosiamisis in 2001 was greater than 50\%. The epidemiological data are extracted from a longitudinal study carried on the region between 2001 and 2010 and the demographic parameter from official Brazilian population data. When these estimated parameters are entered, our model gives a limit prevalence for Virgem das Graças of 11\%, which is still significantly high even though treatment in accordance to the government regulations is systematically performed. This estimative reinforces once again, that in order to eliminate Schistomiasis, public health policies aimed at treatment, sanitation, including snail control, and health education programs are mandatory.
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