低生育率逆转：生物系统与经济系统相互作用的一个特征
Low fertility rate reversal: a feature of interactions between Biological and Economic systems
摘要：
经验关系表明，生活水平的提高会降低总生育率，但2005年在高度发达国家，这一趋势被打破。总生育率的逆转与人类发展指数所表示的持续经济和社会发展有关。我们已经研究了TFR逆转的普遍性和持久性。结果表明，在高度发达国家，$ \mathrm{HDI}>0.85 $、总生育率和人类发展指数在2010-2014年之间不相关。对TFR和HDI的相关性和差异性的详细分析表明，如果HDI在这一时期增加，TFR会减少。然而，我们发现，在许多国家，由于经济发展，TFR的逆转始于中等水平的HDI，即$ 0.575<\mathrm{HDI}<0.85 $。我们的研究结果显示，2010-2014年高度发达国家的TFR逆转具有短暂性，而中等发达国家的TFR增长在较长时间内呈现相对稳定的趋势。我们认为，了解总生育率的基本性质对中等和高度发达社会的生存非常重要。
英文摘要：
An empirical relation indicates that an increase of living standard decreases the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), but this trend was broken in highly developed countries in 2005. The reversal of the TFR was associated with the continuous economic and social development expressed by the Human Development Index (HDI). We have investigated how universal and persistent the TFR reversal is. The results show that in highly developed countries, $ \mathrm{HDI}>0.85 $, the TFR and the HDI are not correlated in 2010-2014. Detailed analyses of correlations and differences of the TFR and the HDI indicate a decrease of the TFR if the HDI increases in this period. However, we found that a reversal of the TFR as a consequence of economic development started at medium levels of the HDI, i.e. $ 0.575<\mathrm{HDI}<0.85 $, in many countries. Our results show a transient nature of the TFR reversal in highly developed countries in 2010-2014 and a relative stable trend of the TFR increase in medium developed countries in longer time periods. We believe that knowledge of the fundamental nature of the TFR is very important for the survival of medium and highly developed societies.
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