We present a new algorithm which detects the maximal possible number of matched disjoint pairs satisfying a given caliper when a bipartite matching is done with respect to a scalar index (e.g., propensity score), and constructs a corresponding matching. Variable width calipers are compatible with the technique, provided that the width of the caliper is a Lipschitz function of the index. If the observations are ordered with respect to the index then the matching needs $O(N)$ operations, where $N$ is the total number of subjects to be matched. The case of 1-to-$n$ matching is also considered. We offer also a new fast algorithm for optimal complete one-to-one matching on a scalar index when the treatment and control groups are of the same size. This allows us to improve greedy nearest neighbor matching on a scalar index.
Keywords: propensity score matching, nearest neighbor matching, matching with caliper, variable width caliper.
We compare the performance of standard nearest-neighbor propensity score matching with that of an analogous Bayesian propensity score matching procedure. We show that the Bayesian approach makes better use of available information, as it makes less arbitrary decisions about which observations to drop and which ones to keep in the matched sample. We conduct a simulation study to evaluate the performance of standard and Bayesian nearest-neighbor matching when matching is done with and without replacement. We then use both methods to replicate a recent study about the impact of land reform on gue…
Propensity score matching (PSM) is the de-facto standard for estimating causal effects in observational studies. We show that PSM and its implementations are susceptible to several major drawbacks and illustrate these findings using a case study with $17,427$ patients. We derive four formal properties an optimal statistical matching algorithm should meet, and propose Deterministic Balancing Score exact Matching (DBSeM) which meets the aforementioned properties for an exact matching. Furthermore, we investigate one of the main problems of PSM, that is that common PSM results in one valid set of…
Propensity score matching (PSM) is a pseudo-experimental method that uses statistical techniques to construct an artificial control group by matching each treated unit with one or more untreated units of similar characteristics. To date, the problem of determining the optimal number of matches per unit, which plays an important role in PSM, has not been adequately addressed. We propose a tuning-parameter-free PSM method based on the nonparametric maximum-likelihood estimation of the propensity score under the monotonicity constraint. The estimated propensity score is piecewise constant, and th…
Propensity score matching is a common tool for adjusting for observed confounding in observational studies, but is known to have limitations in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In many settings, researchers are confronted with spatially-indexed data where the relative locations of the observational units may serve as a useful proxy for unmeasured confounding that varies according to a spatial pattern. We develop a new method, termed Distance Adjusted Propensity Score Matching (DAPSm) that incorporates information on units' spatial proximity into a propensity score matching procedure. We…
Recently, due to the booming influence of online social networks, detecting fake news is drawing significant attention from both academic communities and general public. In this paper, we consider the existence of confounding variables in the features of fake news and use Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to select generalizable features in order to reduce the effects of the confounding variables. Experimental results show that the generalizability of fake news method is significantly better by using PSM than using raw frequency to select features. We investigate multiple types of fake news meth…
The paper shows that matching without replacement on propensity scores produces estimators that generally are inconsistent for the average treatment effect of the treated. To achieve consistency, practitioners must either assume that no units exist with propensity scores greater than one-half or assume that there is no confounding among such units. The result is not driven by the use of propensity scores, and similar artifacts arise when matching on other scores as long as it is without replacement.
Optimal propensity score matching has emerged as one of the most ubiquitous approaches for causal inference studies on observational data; However, outstanding critiques of the statistical properties of propensity score matching have cast doubt on the statistical efficiency of this technique, and the poor scalability of optimal matching to large data sets makes this approach inconvenient if not infeasible for sample sizes that are increasingly commonplace in modern observational data. The stratamatch package provides implementation support and diagnostics for `stratified matching designs,' an …
In this paper, we develop new methods for estimating average treatment effects in observational studies, focusing on settings with more than two treatment levels under unconfoundedness given pre-treatment variables. We emphasize subclassification and matching methods which have been found to be effective in the binary treatment literature and which are among the most popular methods in that setting. Whereas the literature has suggested that these particular propensity-based methods do not naturally extend to the multi-level treatment case, we show, using the concept of weak unconfoundedness, t…
Propensity score matching has been a long-standing tradition for handling confounding in causal inference, however requiring stringent model assumptions. In this article, we propose double score matching(DSM) for general causal estimands utilizing two balancing scores including the propensity score and prognostic score. To gain the protection of possible model misspecification, we posit multiple candidate models for each score. We show that the de-biasing DSM estimator achieves the multiple robustness property in that it is consistent for the true causal estimand if any model of the propensity…
Propensity Score Matching (PSM) is an useful method to reduce the impact ofTreatment - Selection Bias in the estimation of causal effects in observational studies. After matching, the PSM significantly reduces the sample under investigation, which may lead to other possible biases. In this sense, we want to analyse the behaviour of this PSM compared with other widely used method to deal with non-comparable groups, as is the Multivariate Regression Model (MRM). Monte Carlo Simulations are made to construct groups with different effects in order to compare the behaviour of PSM and MRM estimating…
Stanford University Graduate School of Business（斯坦福大学商学院）
In this paper, we propose deep learning techniques for econometrics, specifically for causal inference and for estimating individual as well as average treatment effects. The contribution of this paper is twofold: 1. For generalized neighbor matching to estimate individual and average treatment effects, we analyze the use of autoencoders for dimensionality reduction while maintaining the local neighborhood structure among the data points in the embedding space. This deep learning based technique is shown to perform better than simple k nearest neighbor matching for estimating treatment effects…
Adjustment for Unmeasured Spatial Confounding in Settings of Continuous Exposure Conditional on the Binary Exposure Status: Conditional Generalized Propensity Score-Based Spatial Matching
In the context of a binary treatment, matching is a well-established approach in causal inference. However, in the context of a continuous treatment or exposure, matching is still underdeveloped. We propose an innovative matching approach to estimate an average causal exposure-response function under the setting of continuous exposures that relies on the generalized propensity score (GPS). Our approach maintains the following attractive features of matching: a) clear separation between the design and the analysis; b) robustness to model misspecification or to the presence of extreme values of …
We investigate the estimation of subgroup treatment effects with observational data. Existing propensity score matching and weighting methods are mostly developed for estimating overall treatment effect. Although the true propensity score should balance covariates for the subgroup populations, the estimated propensity score may not balance covariates for the subgroup samples. We propose the subgroup balancing propensity score (SBPS) method, which selects, for each subgroup, to use either the overall sample or the subgroup sample to estimate propensity scores for units within that subgroup, in …
Propensity score matching (PSM) has been widely used to mitigate confounding in observational studies, although complications arise when the covariates used to estimate the PS are only partially observed. Multiple imputation (MI) is a potential solution for handling missing covariates in the estimation of the PS. Unfortunately, it is not clear how to best apply MI strategies in the context of PSM. We conducted a simulation study to compare the performances of popular non-MI missing data methods and various MI-based strategies under different missing data mechanisms (MDMs). We found that common…
In observational clinic registries, time to treatment is often of interest, but treatment can be given at any time during follow-up and there is no structure or intervention to ensure regular clinic visits for data collection. To address these challenges, we introduce the time-dependent propensity process as a generalization of the propensity score. We show that the propensity process balances the entire time-varying covariate history which cannot be achieved by existing propensity score methods and that treatment assignment is strongly ignorable conditional on the propensity process. We devel…
In observational studies, researchers must select a method to control for confounding. Options include propensity score methods and regression. It remains unclear how dataset characteristics (size, overlap in propensity scores, exposure prevalence) influence the relative performance of the methods, making it difficult to select the best method for a particular dataset. A simulation study to evaluate the role of dataset characteristics on the performance of propensity score methods, compared to logistic regression, for estimating a marginal odds ratio in the presence of confounding was conducte…
Most epidemiologic cohorts are composed of volunteers who do not represent the general population. To enable population inference from cohorts, we and others have proposed utilizing probability survey samples as external references to develop a propensity score (PS) for membership in the cohort versus survey. Herein we develop a unified framework for PS-based weighting (such as inverse PS weighting (IPSW)) and matching methods (such as kernel-weighting (KW) method). We identify a fundamental Strong Exchangeability Assumption (SEA) underlying existing PS-based matching methods whose failure inv…
The two-stage process of propensity score analysis (PSA) includes a design stage where propensity scores are estimated and implemented to approximate a randomized experiment and an analysis stage where treatment effects are estimated conditional upon the design. This paper considers how uncertainty associated with the design stage impacts estimation of causal effects in the analysis stage. Such design uncertainty can derive from the fact that the propensity score itself is an estimated quantity, but also from other features of the design stage tied to choice of propensity score implementation.…
In this article, we propose the outcome-adjusted balance measure to perform model selection for the generalized propensity score (GPS), which serves as an essential component in estimation of the pairwise average treatment effects (ATEs) in observational studies with more than two treatment levels. The primary goal of the balance measure is to identify the GPS model specification such that the resulting ATE estimator is consistent and efficient. Following recent empirical and theoretical evidence, we establish that the optimal GPS model should only include covariates related to the outcomes. G…
About forty years ago, in a now--seminal contribution, Rosenbaum & Rubin (1983) introduced a critical characterization of the propensity score as a central quantity for drawing causal inferences in observational study settings. In the decades since, much progress has been made across several research fronts in causal inference, notably including the re-weighting and matching paradigms. Focusing on the former and specifically on its intersection with machine learning and semiparametric efficiency theory, we re-examine the role of the propensity score in modern methodological developments. As Ro…
Quantum Neural Networks for Propensity Score Estimation and Survival Analysis in Observational Biomedical Studies
Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer science, VSB-Technical University of Ostrava（计算机科学系，电气工程与计算机科学学院，VSB技术大学奥斯特拉瓦）；VSB-Technical University of Ostrava（VSB技术大学奥斯特拉瓦）；IT4Innovations National Supercomputing Center, VSB - Technical University of Ostrava（IT4Innovations国家超级计算中心，VSB技术大学奥斯特拉瓦）；Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer science, VSB-Technical University of Ostrava（应用数学系，电气工程与计算机科学学院，VSB技术大学奥斯特拉瓦）；Department of Surgical Studies, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ostrava（外科研究系，医学院，奥斯特拉瓦大学）；Department of Surgery, University Hospital Ostrava（外科系，奥斯特拉瓦大学医院）
Estimating marginal treatment effects from observational studies and indirect treatment comparisons: When are standardization-based methods preferable to those based on propensity score weighting?
Our work was motivated by a recent study on birth defects of infants born to pregnant women exposed to a certain medication for treating chronic diseases. Outcomes such as birth defects are rare events in the general population, which often translate to very small numbers of events in the unexposed group. As drug safety studies in pregnancy are typically observational in nature, we control for confounding in this rare events setting using propensity scores (PS). Using our empirical data, we noticed that the estimated odds ratio for birth defects due to exposure varied drastically depending on …
We propose a new perspective for the evaluation of matching procedures by considering the complexity of the function class they belong to. Under this perspective we provide theoretical guarantees on post-matching covariate balance through a finite sample concentration inequality. We apply this framework to coarsened exact matching as well as matching using the propensity score and suggest how to apply it to other algorithms. Simulation studies are used to evaluate the procedures.
Propensity score (PS) methods have been increasingly used in recent years when assessing treatment effects in nonrandomized studies. In terms of statistical methods, a number of new PS weighting methods were developed, and it was shown that they can outperform PS matching in efficiency of treatment effect estimation in different simulation settings. For assessing balance of covariates in treatment groups, PS weighting methods commonly use the weighted standardized difference, despite some deficiencies of this measure like, for example, the distribution of the weighted standardized difference d…
Use of historical control data to augment a small internal control arm in a randomized control trial (RCT) can lead to significant improvement of the efficiency of the trial. It introduces the risk of potential bias, since the historical control population is often rather different from the RCT. Power prior approaches have been introduced to discount the historical data to mitigate the impact of the population difference. However, even with a Bayesian dynamic borrowing which can discount the historical data based on the outcome similarity of the two populations, a considerable population diffe…
The propensity score is a common tool for estimating the causal effect of a binary treatment in observational data. In this setting, matching, subclassification, imputation, or inverse probability weighting on the propensity score can reduce the initial covariate bias between the treatment and control groups. With more than two treatment options, however, estimation of causal effects requires additional assumptions and techniques, the implementations of which have varied across disciplines. This paper reviews current methods, and it identifies and contrasts the treatment effects that each one …
A distinctive feature of a clustered observational study is its multilevel or nested data structure arising from the assignment of treatment, in a non-random manner, to groups or clusters of units or individuals. Examples are ubiquitous in the health and social sciences including patients in hospitals, employees in firms, and students in schools. What is the optimal matching strategy in a clustered observational study? At first thought, one might start by matching clusters of individuals and then, within matched clusters, continue by matching individuals. But as we discuss in this paper, the o…
Causal inference via propensity scores for case-control studies
Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）；McGill University（麦吉尔大学）；Centre de recherche de St. Mary（圣玛丽研究中心）；Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre（麦吉尔大学健康中心研究所）；SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University（纽约州立大学_downstate_健康科学大学）；Institut national de la recherche scientifique, Centre Armand-Frappier Santé Biotechnologie（国家科研研究所，阿尔芒-弗拉皮耶生物技术与健康中心）；Centre de recherche du CHU de Québec – Université Laval（魁北克大学医院研究中心）
To estimate casual treatment effects, we propose a new matching approach based on the reduced covariates obtained from sufficient dimension reduction. Compared to the original covariates and the propensity score, which are commonly used for matching in the literature, the reduced covariates are estimable nonparametrically under a mild assumption on the original covariates, and are sufficient and effective in imputing the missing potential outcomes. Under the ignorability assumption, the consistency of the proposed approach requires a weaker common support condition. In addition, the researcher…
Propensity score (PS) weighting methods are often used in non-randomized studies to adjust for confounding and assess treatment effects. The most popular among them, the inverse probability weighting (IPW), assigns weights that are proportional to the inverse of the conditional probability of a specific treatment assignment, given observed covariates. A key requirement for IPW estimation is the positivity assumption, i.e., the PS must be bounded away from 0 and 1. In practice, violations of the positivity assumption often manifest by the presence of limited overlap in the PS distributions betw…
Environmental epidemiologists are increasingly interested in establishing causality between exposures and health outcomes. A popular model for causal inference is the Rubin Causal Model (RCM), which typically seeks to estimate the average difference in study units' potential outcomes. An important assumption under RCM is no interference; that is, the potential outcomes of one unit are not affected by the exposure status of other units. The no interference assumption is violated if we expect spillover or diffusion of exposure effects based on units' proximity to other units and several other ca…
In observational studies of survival time featuring a binary time-dependent treatment, the hazard ratio (an instantaneous measure) is often used to represent the treatment effect. However, investigators are often more interested in the difference in survival functions. We propose semiparametric methods to estimate the causal effect of treatment among the treated with respect to survival probability. The objective is to compare post-treatment survival with the survival function that would have been observed in the absence of treatment. For each patient, we compute a prognostic score (based on t…
Propensity score analysis with latent covariates: Measurement error bias correction using the covariate's posterior mean, aka the inclusive factor score
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学彭博公共卫生学院）
We study optimal covariate balance for causal inferences from observational data when rich covariates and complex relationships necessitate flexible modeling with neural networks. Standard approaches such as propensity weighting and matching/balancing fail in such settings due to miscalibrated propensity nets and inappropriate covariate representations, respectively. We propose a new method based on adversarial training of a weighting and a discriminator network that effectively addresses this methodological gap. This is demonstrated through new theoretical characterizations of the method as w…
Randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for estimating causal effects. Nevertheless, in studies that are aimed at examining adverse effects of interventions, such trials are often impractical because of ethical and financial considerations. In observational studies, matching on the generalized propensity scores was proposed as a possible solution to estimate the treatment effects of multiple interventions. However, the derivation of point and interval estimates for these matching procedures can become complex with non-continuous or censored outcomes. We propose a novel Appr…
