用软计算技术预报季节温度：在意大利南部贝内文托地区的应用
Prediction of Seasonal Temperature Using Soft Computing Techniques: Application in Benevento (Southern Italy) Area
摘要：
在这项工作中，两个软计算方法，人工神经网络和遗传编程，提出了预测的平均温度，将出现在未来的季节。应用软计算技术的地区是意大利南部贝内文托镇的周围地区，地理坐标（lat.北纬41°07'50“;东经14 °47'13“）。该地区不受海洋影响，也不受来自西方的风的影响。这些方法是由贝内文托和卡斯特尔韦内雷气象站记录的数据提供的，这两个气象站位于丘陵地区，是该市周围地区的特征，海拔144米。这两种应用的方法显示出较低的出错率，而遗传编程提供了一个明确的规则表示（公式）解释的prevision。季节温度预报;软计算;人工神经网络;遗传编程;意大利南部;
英文摘要：
In this work two soft computing methods, Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Programming, are proposed in order to forecast the mean temperature that will occur in future seasons. The area in which the soft computing techniques were applied is that of the surroundings of the town of Benevento, in the south of Italy, having geographic coordinates (lat. 41°07'50"N; long.14°47'13"E). This area is not affected by maritime influences as well as by winds coming from the west. The methods are fed by data recorded in the meteorological stations of Benevento and Castelvenere, located in the hilly area, which characterizes the territory surrounding this city, at 144 m a.s.l. Both the applied methods show low error rates, while the Genetic Programming offers an explicit rule representation (a formula) explaining the prevision. Keywords Seasonal Temperature Forecasting; Soft Computing; Artificial Neural Networks; Genetic Programming; Southern Italy.
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