速度适应和间距无差异在交通不稳定性中的作用：来自跟驰实验及其随机建模的证据
On the role of speed adaptation and spacing indifference in traffic instability: evidence from car-following experiments and its stochastic modeling
摘要：
交通流理论界一直在深入研究交通流振荡的产生和演化机制。在我们以前的工作中，我们提出了一个新的机制来解释流量振荡的产生：流量不稳定性之间的竞争造成的速度适应和随机因素的累积效应。本文通过对25辆车的队列跟驰实验数据的分析，发现速度差对跟驰动力学的影响比车距的影响更大，当速度差幅值较小时，振荡的增长主要由服从均值回复过程的随机因素决定;当振幅增大时，振荡的增长取决于随机因素与速度差之间的竞争。然后，根据上述研究结果，解释了为什么在振荡交通的速度方差增长在一个凹的方式沿队列。最后，我们提出了一个模式切换的随机跟驰模型，该模型结合了驾驶员的速度适应和间距无差异行为，捕捉到了所观察到的振荡和放电率的特征。敏感性分析表明，反应时滞对振荡增长率和放电率的影响很小，而无差异区边界对振荡增长率和放电率的影响很大。
英文摘要：
Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the emergence and evolution of oscillations in traffic flow has been subject to intensive research by the traffic flow theory community. In our previous work, we proposed a new mechanism to explain the generation of traffic oscillations: traffic instability caused by the competition between speed adaptation and the cumulative effect of stochastic factors. In this paper, by conducting a closer examination of car following data obtained in a 25-car platoon experiment, we discovered that the speed difference plays a more important role on car-following dynamics than the spacing, and when its amplitude is small, the growth of oscillations is mainly determined by the stochastic factors that follow the mean reversion process; when its amplitude increases, the growth of the oscillations is determined by the competition between the stochastic factors and the speed difference. An explanation is then provided, based on the above findings, to why the speed variance in the oscillatory traffic grows in a concave way along the platoon. Finally, we proposed a mode-switching stochastic car-following model that incorporates the speed adaptation and spacing indifference behaviors of drivers, which captures the observed characteristics of oscillation and discharge rate. Sensitivity analysis shows that reaction delay only has slight effect but indifference region boundary has significant on oscillation growth rate and discharge rate.
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