限令订单簿的信息含量：对预测市场的实证研究
The Informational Content of the Limit Order Book: An Empirical Study of Prediction Markets
AI总结：
本文实证研究了二元期权预测市场，探讨市场是否达成共识，发现信念收敛证据不足，并利用 econometrician 数据估计共识信念。
摘要：
本文实证研究了二元期权预测市场，探讨市场是否达成共识，发现信念收敛证据不足，并利用 econometrician 数据估计共识信念。我使用不完整均衡结果的规范来推导信念的界限，从订单提交决策中得出区间估计的平均信念，无法排除总体信念等于0.5。
英文摘要：
In this paper I empirically investigate prediction markets for binary options. Advocates of prediction markets have suggested that asset prices are consistent estimators of the "true" probability of a state of the world being realized. I test whether the market reaches a "consensus." I find little evidence for convergence in beliefs. I then determine whether an econometrician using data beyond execution prices can leverage this data to estimate the consensus belief. I use an incomplete specification of equilibrium outcomes to derive bounds on beliefs from order submission decisions. Interval estimates of mean beliefs cannot exclude aggregate beliefs equal to 0.5.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
