The predominant method for evaluating the quality of causal models is to measure the graphical accuracy of the learned model structure. We present an alternative method for evaluating causal models that directly measures the accuracy of estimated interventional distributions. We contrast such distributional measures with structural measures, such as structural Hamming distance and structural intervention distance, showing that structural measures often correspond poorly to the accuracy of estimated interventional distributions. We use a number of real and synthetic datasets to illustrate various scenarios in which structural measures provide misleading results with respect to algorithm selection and parameter tuning, and we recommend that distributional measures become the new standard for evaluating causal models.
Interventions are of fundamental importance in Pearl's probabilistic causality regime. In this paper, we will inspect how interventions influence the interpretation of causation in causal models in specific situation. To this end, we will introduce a priori relationships as non-causal relationships in a causal system. Then, we will proceed to discuss the cases that interventions can lead to spurious causation interpretations. This includes the interventional detection of a priori relationships, and cases where the interventional detection of causality forms structural causal models that are no…
Incorporating causal knowledge and mechanisms is essential for refining causal models and improving downstream tasks such as designing new treatments. In this paper, we introduce a novel concept in causal discovery, termed interventional constraints, which differs fundamentally from interventional data. While interventional data require direct perturbations of variables, interventional constraints encode high-level causal knowledge in the form of inequality constraints on causal effects. For instance, in the Sachs dataset (Sachs et al.\ 2005), Akt has been shown to be activated by PIP3, meanin…
Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single latent confounder that takes values in the same space as the treatment variable, without changing the observational and interventional distributions the causal model entails. This allows us to estimate the causal effect in a principled way from combined data without relying on the common but often unrealistic assumption that all confounders have been observ…
We explore how observational and interventional causal discovery methods can be combined. A state-of-the-art observational causal discovery algorithm for time series capable of handling latent confounders and contemporaneous effects, called LPCMCI, is extended to profit from casual constraints found through randomized control trials. Numerical results show that, given perfect interventional constraints, the reconstructed structural causal models (SCMs) of the extended LPCMCI allow 84.6% of the time for the optimal prediction of the target variable. The implementation of interventional and obse…
Humans use causality and hypothetical retrospection in their daily decision-making, planning, and understanding of life events. The human mind, while retrospecting a given situation, think about questions such as "What was the cause of the given situation?", "What would be the effect of my action?", or "Which action led to this effect?". It develops a causal model of the world, which learns with fewer data points, makes inferences, and contemplates counterfactual scenarios. The unseen, unknown, scenarios are known as counterfactuals. AI algorithms use a representation based on knowledge graphs…
$χ$SPN: Characteristic Interventional Sum-Product Networks for Causal Inference in Hybrid Domains
Indian Institute of Technology Bombay（印度孟买理工学院）；Technical University of Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；Hessian Center for Artificial Intelligence (hessian.AI)（黑森人工智能中心）；German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI)（德国人工智能研究中心）；Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）
PACER: Acyclic Causal Discovery from Large-Scale Interventional Data
Swiss Federal Technology Institute of Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland（瑞士联邦理工学院洛桑分校）；Cornell University, USA（康奈尔大学）；ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland（苏黎世联邦理工学院）
Decomposing Interventional Causality into Synergistic, Redundant, and Unique Components
Dutch Institute for Emergent Phenomena（荷兰新兴现象研究所）；the Netherlands Institute for Logic, Language and Computation（荷兰逻辑、语言与计算研究所）；University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；Institute of Physics, University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学物理研究所）
Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances algorithms that learn causal models from data, and this work has produced a series of impressive technical advances. However, evaluation techniques for causal modeling algorithms have remained somewhat primitive, limiting what we can learn from experimental studies of algorithm performance, constraining the types of algorithms and model representations that research…
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）
Modern machine learning approaches excel in static settings where a large amount of i.i.d. training data are available for a given task. In a dynamic environment, though, an intelligent agent needs to be able to transfer knowledge and re-use learned components across domains. It has been argued that this may be possible through causal models, aiming to mirror the modularity of the real world in terms of independent causal mechanisms. However, the true causal structure underlying a given set of data is generally not identifiable, so it is desirable to have means to quantify differences between …
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；Sharif University of Technology（谢里夫理工大学）；École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne（洛桑联邦理工学院）
It is known that from purely observational data, a causal DAG is identifiable only up to its Markov equivalence class, and for many ground truth DAGs, the direction of a large portion of the edges will be remained unidentified. The golden standard for learning the causal DAG beyond Markov equivalence is to perform a sequence of interventions in the system and use the data gathered from the interventional distributions. We consider a setup in which given a budget $k$, we design $k$ interventions non-adaptively. We cast the problem of finding the best intervention target set as an optimization p…
Can Large Language Models Help Experimental Design for Causal Discovery?
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)（香港科技大学（广州））；MBZUAI（穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学）；Hong Kong Baptist University（香港浸会大学）；The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）
IBM Research（IBM研究院）；MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab（麻省理工学院-IBM沃森人工智能实验室）；MIT（麻省理工学院）
Directed acyclic graph (DAG) models are popular for capturing causal relationships. From observational and interventional data, a DAG model can only be determined up to its \emph{interventional Markov equivalence class} (I-MEC). We investigate the size of MECs for random DAG models generated by uniformly sampling and ordering an Erdős-Rényi graph. For constant density, we show that the expected $\log$ observational MEC size asymptotically (in the number of vertices) approaches a constant. We characterize I-MEC size in a similar fashion in the above settings with high precision. We show that th…
ACTIVA: Amortized Causal Effect Estimation via Variational Autoencoders
Learning and Reasoning Group（学习与推理组）；Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹自由大学）；Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science (LIACS)（莱顿先进计算机科学研究所）；Leiden University（莱顿大学）；Informatics Institute & Institute for Logic, Language and Computation（信息研究所及逻辑、语言与计算研究所）；University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；KTH Royal Institute of Technology（瑞典皇家理工学院）
Causal discovery from observational and interventional data is challenging due to limited data and non-identifiability: factors that introduce uncertainty in estimating the underlying structural causal model (SCM). Selecting experiments (interventions) based on the uncertainty arising from both factors can expedite the identification of the SCM. Existing methods in experimental design for causal discovery from limited data either rely on linear assumptions for the SCM or select only the intervention target. This work incorporates recent advances in Bayesian causal discovery into the Bayesian o…
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；Qualcomm AI Research（高通人工智能研究院）
Learning the structure of a causal graphical model using both observational and interventional data is a fundamental problem in many scientific fields. A promising direction is continuous optimization for score-based methods, which, however, require constrained optimization to enforce acyclicity or lack convergence guarantees. In this paper, we present ENCO, an efficient structure learning method for directed, acyclic causal graphs leveraging observational and interventional data. ENCO formulates the graph search as an optimization of independent edge likelihoods, with the edge orientation bei…
We propose an adversarial training procedure for learning a causal implicit generative model for a given causal graph. We show that adversarial training can be used to learn a generative model with true observational and interventional distributions if the generator architecture is consistent with the given causal graph. We consider the application of generating faces based on given binary labels where the dependency structure between the labels is preserved with a causal graph. This problem can be seen as learning a causal implicit generative model for the image and labels. We devise a two-st…
University of Strathclyde（思克莱德大学）；University of Copenhagen（哥本哈根大学）
Interventional causal models describe several joint distributions over some variables used to describe a system, one for each intervention setting. They provide a formal recipe for how to move between the different joint distributions and make predictions about the variables upon intervening on the system. Yet, it is difficult to formalise how we may change the underlying variables used to describe the system, say moving from fine-grained to coarse-grained variables. Here, we argue that compositionality is a desideratum for such model transformations and the associated errors: When abstracting…
