西班牙2015年和2016年全国选举中的两党合作分解、职能网络和法医分析
Bipartisanship breakdown, functional networks and forensic analysis in Spanish 2015 and 2016 national elections
摘要：
在本文中，我们提出了一个社交网络和法医分析的选票计数的西班牙全国选举发生在2015年12月和他们的续集在2016年6月。投票计数是在市政当局一级提取的，产生了一个具有8000多个样本的异常高分辨率数据集。我们首先考虑两党崩溃的现象，通过分析几个两党指数的空间分布。我们发现，这种崩溃是更突出的接近世界性和人口稠密的地区，在农村地区，两党合作仍然盛行，其演变温和巩固在2016年一轮，与一些证据表明，两党合作的加强，我们假设是由于风险规避的心理机制不太重要。第三步，我们探讨在何种程度上投票数据是忠实的应用法医技术投票统计。我们首先探讨的一致性的第一位数分布本福德定律的每个主要政党。结果和解释是混合的，并在不同层次的聚合不同，发现一个一般良好的定量协议在全国范围内的城市和选区，但发现系统的不一致，在个别选区的水平。作为一个补充指标，我们进一步探讨了共同发生的统计数据的投票率和投票率，发现一个温和的趋势，在集群的保守党涂抹到该地区的高投票率和投票率，这是以前被解释为一个可能的迹象增量欺诈。在2015年和2016年的选举中，结果在质量上都是相似的。
英文摘要：
In this paper we present a social network and forensic analysis of the vote counts of Spanish national elections that took place in December 2015 and their sequel in June 2016. Vote counts are extracted at the level of municipalities, yielding an unusually high resolution dataset with over 8000 samples. We initially consider the phenomenon of Bipartisanship breakdown by analysing spatial distributions of several Bipartisanship indices. We find that such breakdown is more prominent close to cosmopolite and largely populated areas and less important in rural areas where Bipartisanship still prevails, and its evolution mildly consolidates in the 2016 round, with some evidence of Bipartisanship reinforcement which we hypothesize to be due to psychological mechanisms of risk aversion. On a third step we explore to which extent vote data are faithful by applying forensic techniques to vote statistics. We first explore the conformance of first digit distributions to Benford's law for each of the main political parties. The results and interpretations are mixed and vary across different levels of aggregation, finding a general good quantitative agreement at the national scale for both municipalities and precincts but finding systematic nonconformance at the level of individual precincts. As a complementary metric, we further explore the co-occurring statistics of voteshare and turnout, finding a mild tendency in the clusters of the conservative party to smear out towards the area of high turnout and voteshare, what has been previously interpreted as a possible sign of incremental fraud. In every case results are qualitatively similar between 2015 and 2016 elections.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
