强El Niño事件的内在不可预测性
Intrinsic unpredictability of strong El Niño events
摘要：
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是赤道太平洋海气耦合的一种年际变化模态。厄尔尼诺现象描述了一种状态，即东太平洋的海面温度上升，而较冷的深水上升流减少。厄尔尼诺事件通常在北方冬季达到峰值，但其强度在十年时间尺度上变化不规则。1982-83年，1997-98年和2015-16年发生了异常强烈的厄尔尼诺事件，影响了全球范围的天气。2014年广泛宣传的预测预测2015-16年的事件将提前一年发生。预测厄尔尼诺的强度是一个实际问题，因为它对世界各地的水文气候和农业产生影响。本文提出了一个新的强大的机制，限制强厄尔尼诺-南方涛动事件的可预测性：存在一个不规则的切换之间的振荡状态，有强厄尔尼诺事件和混沌状态，缺乏强事件，这可能是由非常弱的季节强迫或噪音。
英文摘要：
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial ocean/atmosphere Pacific. El Niño describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling of colder, deep waters diminishes. El Niño events typically peak in boreal winter, but their strength varies irregularly on decadal time scales. There were exceptionally strong El Niño events in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 that affected weather on a global scale. Widely publicized forecasts in 2014 predicted that the 2015-16 event would occur a year earlier. Predicting the strength of El Niño is a matter of practical concern due to its effects on hydroclimate and agriculture around the world. This paper presents a new robust mechanism limiting the predictability of strong ENSO events: the existence of an irregular switching between an oscillatory state that has strong El Niño events and a chaotic state that lacks strong events, which can be induced by very weak seasonal forcing or noise.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
