观测到的热带年极端降雨量的增与减
Waxing and Waning of Observed Extreme Annual Tropical Rainfall
摘要：
我们首先提供观测证据，遇到非常高和非常低的年热带降雨量的概率显着增加，在最近十年（1998年至今）相比，以前的变暖时代（1979-1997年）。陆地和海洋的这些变化在空间上是连贯的，包括非常潮湿地区的重新安排和干旱地区的系统性扩张。虽然出现极端情况的可能性增加与停顿期间平均气温较高（与1979-1997年相比）相一致，但必须指出，所考虑的时期也具有厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）从相对温暖阶段向寒冷阶段过渡的特点。为了进一步探讨ENSO的对比阶段和累积极值之间的关系，在1960-1978年（ENSO的另一个延长的冷阶段）和上述变暖时期之间进行了类似的比较。虽然受到陆地观测的限制，但在这种冷到暖的转变中，值得注意的是，在统计学和地理学上都注意到了极端的近乎精确的逆转。尽管1979-1997年的平均气温高于1960-1978年。综上所述，我们认为，有一个基本的模式的自然变率，涉及的盈亏的极端积累的全球热带降雨与ENSO的不同阶段。
英文摘要：
We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the recent decade (1998-present) as compared to the preceding warming era (1979-1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise of a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (as compared to 1979-1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To further probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation, a similar comparison is performed between 1960-1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land-only observations, in this cold-to-warm transition, remarkably, a near-exact reversal of extremes is noted both statistically and geographically. This is despite the average temperature being higher in 1979-1997 as compared to 1960-1978. Taken together, we propose that there is a fundamental mode of natural variability, involving the waxing and waning of extremes in accumulation of global tropical rainfall with different phases of ENSO.
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