估计成人死亡率的网络生存方法：来自卢旺达调查实验的证据
The network survival method for estimating adult mortality: Evidence from a survey experiment in Rwanda
摘要：
成人死亡率是人口健康和福祉的一个重要指标。富裕国家拥有高质量的生命登记系统，但贫穷国家缺乏这一基础设施，必须依赖往往有问题的估计。在本文中，我们介绍了网络生存方法，一种新的方法来估计成人死亡率。我们得到精确的条件下，它产生的估计是一致的和无偏的。此外，我们开发了一个分析框架的敏感性分析。为了评估网络生存方法在现实环境中的性能，我们在卢旺达进行了一项具有全国代表性的调查实验（n= 4，669）。网络生存估计数与其他方法的估计数相似，尽管网络生存估计数是用小得多的样本进行的，并且完全基于卢旺达的数据，不需要模型生命表或汇集其他国家的数据。我们的分析结果表明，网络生存的方法具有吸引力的属性，我们的实证结果表明，它可以用于可靠的估计成人死亡率的国家是迫切需要的。
英文摘要：
Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and wellbeing. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often problematic. In this paper, we introduce the network survival method, a new approach for estimating adult death rates. We derive the precise conditions under which it produces estimates that are consistent and unbiased. Further, we develop an analytical framework for sensitivity analysis. To assess the performance of the network survival method in a realistic setting, we conducted a nationally-representative survey experiment in Rwanda (n=4,669). Network survival estimates were similar to estimates from other methods, even though the network survival estimates were made with substantially smaller samples and are based entirely on data from Rwanda, with no need for model life tables or pooling of data from other countries. Our analytic results demonstrate that the network survival method has attractive properties, and our empirical results show that it can be used in countries where reliable estimates of adult death rates are sorely needed.
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