摆脱“封锁”陷阱:一个连接经济发展与政治竞争的动力学模型
Escaping the trap of 'blocking': a kinetic model linking economic development and political competition
摘要:
本文提出了一个具有随机博弈互动的动力学模型,分析了社会政治竞争水平与经济自由化程度之间的关系。上述问题涉及经济与旨在将技术创新引入社会的体制政策之间的复杂互动,在这种社会中,技术创新是广义的,包括对生产至关重要的改革。特别关注Acemoglu和Robinson在宏观模型(AR模型,以下简称AR模型)中描述的政治替代效应,该模型可以确定可能导致经济落后的创新“阻塞”现象。我们的建模的目标之一是获得一个介观动力学模型,其宏观输出定性地与AR模型的程式化的事实。本文给出了一组数值解,揭示了经济自由化与政治竞争之间的非单调关系,它可以被看作是复杂的社会经济互动动态中的一种突现现象。
英文摘要:
In this paper we present a kinetic model with stochastic game-type interactions, analyzing the relationship between the level of political competition in a society and the degree of economic liberalization. The above issue regards the complex interactions between economy and institutional policies intended to introduce technological innovations in a society, where technological innovations are intended in a broad sense comprehending reforms critical to production. A special focus is placed on the political replacement effect described in a macroscopic model by Acemoglu and Robinson (AR-model, henceforth), which can determine the phenomenon of innovation 'blocking', possibly leading to economic backwardness. One of the goals of our modelization is to obtain a mesoscopic dynamical model whose macroscopic outputs are qualitatively comparable with stylized facts of the AR-model. A set of numerical solutions is presented showing the non monotonous relationship between economic liberization and political competition, which can be considered as an emergent phenomenon of the complex socio-economic interaction dynamic.
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