金融网络走向不稳定的途径
Pathways towards instability in financial networks
摘要：
在2007-2008年金融危机之后，人们指出了金融体系不稳定的根源与复杂生态系统之间的深刻相似之处：在这两种情况下，网络结构的拓扑特征影响着危机在系统内传播的难易程度。然而，在金融网络模型中，金融机构如何相互作用的细节通常起着决定性的作用，而对网络拓扑如何造成不稳定性的确切理解仍然缺乏。在这里，我们展示了被广泛认为可以稳定金融体系的过程，即市场一体化和多样化，实际上可以将其推向不稳定，因为它们有助于创造周期性结构，这些结构往往会放大金融困境，从而破坏系统稳定性，并使大危机更有可能发生。这一结果与机构如何相互作用的细节无关，表明可以在抽象这些细节的同时对影响金融稳定的因素进行政策相关分析。
英文摘要：
Following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, a deep analogy between the origins of instability in financial systems and complex ecosystems has been pointed out: in both cases, topological features of network structures influence how easily distress can spread within the system. However, in financial network models, the details of how financial institutions interact typically play a decisive role, and a general understanding of precisely how network topology creates instability remains lacking. Here we show how processes that are widely believed to stabilise the financial system, i.e. market integration and diversification, can actually drive it towards instability, as they contribute to create cyclical structures which tend to amplify financial distress, thereby undermining systemic stability and making large crises more likely. This result holds irrespective of the details of how institutions interact, showing that policy-relevant analysis of the factors affecting financial stability can be carried out while abstracting away from such details.
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