今天我们不知道的关于电子表格错误的事情：事实，为什么我们不相信它们，以及我们需要做什么
What We Don't Know About Spreadsheet Errors Today: The Facts, Why We Don't Believe Them, and What We Need to Do
摘要：
对电子表格错误的研究是大量的，令人信服的，一致的。它有三个简单的结论。首先，电子表格错误在每个单元格的基础上是罕见的，但在大型程序中，至少有一个不正确的底线值很可能存在。第二，错误极难发现和纠正。第三个是电子表格开发人员和公司对他们的电子表格的准确性过于自信。前两个结论和第三个结论之间的脱节似乎是由于人类认知的工作方式。最重要的是，我们很少意识到自己犯的错误。此外，虽然我们自豪地意识到我们修复了错误，但我们不知道还有多少错误，但像小杰克霍纳一样，我们对自己发现错误的能力印象深刻。本文回顾了人类的认知过程，首先表明，无论人类多么努力，他们都不可能没有错误，其次，我们对错误的直觉以及我们如何减少错误是基于令人震惊的错误知识。本文认为，我们应该拒绝任何尚未被严格证明安全有效的减少错误的处方。本文还认为，基于经验数据，我们最大的需求是比现在做更多的测试。这表明，在软件开发中开发的代码检查方法可能非常适用于电子表格检查。
英文摘要：
Research on spreadsheet errors is substantial, compelling, and unanimous. It has three simple conclusions. The first is that spreadsheet errors are rare on a per-cell basis, but in large programs, at least one incorrect bottom-line value is very likely to be present. The second is that errors are extremely difficult to detect and correct. The third is that spreadsheet developers and corporations are highly overconfident in the accuracy of their spreadsheets. The disconnect between the first two conclusions and the third appears to be due to the way human cognition works. Most importantly, we are aware of very few of the errors we make. In addition, while we are proudly aware of errors that we fix, we have no idea of how many remain, but like Little Jack Horner we are impressed with our ability to ferret out errors. This paper reviews human cognition processes and shows first that humans cannot be error free no matter how hard they try, and second that our intuition about errors and how we can reduce them is based on appallingly bad knowledge. This paper argues that we should reject any prescription for reducing errors that has not been rigorously proven safe and effective. This paper also argues that our biggest need, based on empirical data, is to do massively more testing than we do now. It suggests that the code inspection methodology developed in software development is likely to apply very well to spreadsheet inspection.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
