播种者的方式量化全球能源转型的净能源途径
The Sower's way. Quantifying the Narrowing Net-Energy Pathways to a Global Energy Transition
摘要：
规划适当的可再生能源安装率应该平衡两个部分矛盾的目标：足够快地替代化石燃料以避免气候变化的最坏后果，同时保持足够的净能源流量以支持世界经济。投资于建设可再生能源基础设施的前期能源从可用于社会能源需求的净能源中扣除，这一事实通常在能源预测中被忽视。对可行的能源转型途径进行建模，以提供不同的净能级，我们发现它们严重依赖于化石燃料排放上限和逐步淘汰概况以及可再生能源技术投资的特征能源回报。最简单的途径是安装可再生能源发电厂，从2013年的0.12TWp/年加速到6.6至10.4TWp/年的峰值，分别提前或推迟化石燃料淘汰，以便排放量保持在建议的二氧化碳预算范围内。
英文摘要：
Planning the appropriate renewable energy installation rate should balance two partially contradictory objectives: substituting fossil fuels fast enough to stave-off the worst consequences of climate change while maintaining a sufficient net energy flow to support the world's economy. The upfront energy invested in constructing a renewable energy infrastructure subtracts from the net energy available for societal energy needs, a fact typically neglected in energy projections. Modeling feasible energy transition pathways to provide different net energy levels we find that they are critically dependent on the fossil fuel emissions cap and phase-out profile and on the characteristic energy return on energy invested of the renewable energy technologies. The easiest pathway requires installation of renewable energy plants to accelerate from 0.12TWp/year in 2013 to peak between 6.6 and 10.4 TWp/year, for an early or a late fossil-fuel phase-out respectively in order for emissions to stay within the recommended CO2 budget.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
