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arXiv 1602.00536q-bio.PEmath.CAmath.DSphysics.bio-ph
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由环境温度驱动的流感季节性的动态预测:流感与普通感冒

Dynamical prediction of flu seasonality driven by ambient temperature: influenza vs. common cold

Eugene B. Postnikov

摘要:

这项工作提出了一个比较分析的流感病毒数据流感本身和普通感冒在荷兰在过去的5年中,从建模的角度来看,由线性SIRS方程参数驱动的环境温度。有人认为,这种方法可以预测普通感冒,但不是严格意义上的流感。结合临床背景讨论了它们动力学模型的差异。

英文摘要:

This work presents a comparative analysis of Influenzanet data for influenza itself and common cold in the Netherlands during the last 5 years, from the point of view of modelling by linearised SIRS equations parametrically driven by the ambient temperature. It is argued that this approach allows for the forecast of common cold, but not of influenza in a strict sense. The difference in their kinetic models is discussed with reference to the clinical background.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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