一个具有反脆弱性的简单数值模型的初步分析
Initial Analysis of a Simple Numerical Model that Exhibits Antifragile Behavior
摘要：
我提出了一个简单的数值模型的基础上迭代更新的人口，单独建模的非负实数，由一个恒定的衰减因子，但是，在每次迭代中，一个组被选择，而不是由一个恒定的增长因子更新。我发现这些变量之间的关系和它们各自的概率为一个给定的子组，总结为变量$c$。当$c>1$出现时，该亚群倾向于让人联想到反脆弱性的行为;当至少一个亚群的人口有$c\ge1$，人口作为一个整体倾向于显着更高的概率“永生”，虽然它可能首先遭受人口规模下降，因为不太强大，脆弱的亚群“死亡”。“最后，我讨论了这种模型的局限性和伦理，特别是当对增长常数设置上限时的影响，要求人口促进衰变因子的增加，以减轻失败时期的影响。
英文摘要：
I present a simple numerical model based on iteratively updating subgroups of a population, individually modeled by nonnegative real numbers, by a constant decay factor; however, at each iteration, one group is selected to instead be updated by a constant growth factor. I discover a relationship between these variables and their respective probabilities for a given subgroup, summarized as the variable $c$. When $c>1$, the subgroup is found to tend towards behaviors reminiscent of antifragility; when at least one subgroup of the population has $c\ge1$, the population as a whole tends towards significantly higher probabilities of "living forever," although it may first suffer a drop in population size as less robust, fragile subgroups "die off." In concluding, I discuss the limitations and ethics of such a model, notably the implications of when an upper limit is placed on the growth constant, requiring a population to facilitate an increase in the decay factor to lessen the impact of periods of failure.
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