政策调整代价大时随机变化人口的最优管理
Optimal management of a stochastically varying population when policy adjustment is costly
摘要：
生态系统是动态的，管理它们的政策需要对这种变化作出反应。然而，政策调整有时代价高昂，这意味着微调政策以密切跟踪环境的变化，只有在某些时候才是值得的。我们使用一个经典的渔业管理问题-如何管理一个随机变化的人口使用每年不同的配额，以最大限度地提高利润-研究政策调整的成本如何改变最佳管理建议。政策调整的成本（此处指捕捞配额随时间的变化）可以采取不同的形式。例如，这些成本可能会对正在实施的变更的规模做出响应，或者在配额变更的任何时候都可能有固定成本。我们展示了不同形式的政策成本对最优政策的影响。虽然人们经常假设调整政策的成本会抑制政策的变化，但我们发现，某些成本结构实际上会随着时间的推移而增加变化。我们进一步表明，不考虑调整成本的经济影响一直比假设这些成本存在时更糟糕。
英文摘要：
Ecological systems are dynamic and policies to manage them need to respond to that variation. However, policy adjustments will sometimes be costly, which means that fine-tuning a policy to track variability in the environment very tightly will only sometimes be worthwhile. We use a classic fisheries management question -- how to manage a stochastically varying population using annually varying quotas in order to maximize profit -- to examine how costs of policy adjustment change optimal management recommendations. Costs of policy adjustment (here changes in fishing quotas through time) could take different forms. For example, these costs may respond to the size of the change being implemented, or there could be a fixed cost any time a quota change is made. We show how different forms of policy costs have contrasting implications for optimal policies. Though it is frequently assumed that costs to adjusting policies will dampen variation in the policy, we show that certain cost structures can actually increase variation through time. We further show that failing to account for adjustment costs has a consistently worse economic impact than would assuming these costs are present when they are not.
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