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arXiv 1503.07810stat.MLstat.AP
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累犯预测的可解释分类模型

Interpretable Classification Models for Recidivism Prediction

Jiaming Zeng, Berk Ustun, Cynthia Rudin

摘要:

我们研究了一个长期争论的问题,即如何创建足够准确、透明和可解释的累犯预测模型,以用于决策。这个问题是复杂的,因为这些模型被用来支持不同的决定,从判刑,以确定缓刑释放,以分配预防性社会服务。每个用例可能有一个不同于分类准确性的目标,例如期望的真阳性率(TPR)或假阳性率(FPR)。每个(TPR,FPR)对是受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线上的一个点。我们使用流行的机器学习方法来创建模型,沿着广泛的累犯预测问题的完整ROC曲线。我们表明,许多方法(SVM,岭回归)产生同样准确的模型沿整个ROC曲线。然而,为可解释性而设计的方法(CART,C5.0)无法调整以产生准确和/或可解释的模型。为了解决这个问题,我们使用了一种新的方法SLIM(Superparse Linear Models)来沿着完整的ROC曲线生成准确,透明和可解释的模型。这些模型可以用于许多不同用例的决策,因为它们与最强大的黑盒机器学习模型一样准确,但完全透明,并且高度可解释。

英文摘要:

We investigate a long-debated question, which is how to create predictive models of recidivism that are sufficiently accurate, transparent, and interpretable to use for decision-making. This question is complicated as these models are used to support different decisions, from sentencing, to determining release on probation, to allocating preventative social services. Each use case might have an objective other than classification accuracy, such as a desired true positive rate (TPR) or false positive rate (FPR). Each (TPR, FPR) pair is a point on the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. We use popular machine learning methods to create models along the full ROC curve on a wide range of recidivism prediction problems. We show that many methods (SVM, Ridge Regression) produce equally accurate models along the full ROC curve. However, methods that designed for interpretability (CART, C5.0) cannot be tuned to produce models that are accurate and/or interpretable. To handle this shortcoming, we use a new method known as SLIM (Supersparse Linear Integer Models) to produce accurate, transparent, and interpretable models along the full ROC curve. These models can be used for decision-making for many different use cases, since they are just as accurate as the most powerful black-box machine learning models, but completely transparent, and highly interpretable.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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