房价俱乐部收敛：来自中国十大城市的证据
Club Convergence of House Prices: Evidence from China's Ten Key Cities
摘要：
最近的全球金融海啸及其后续的全球经济衰退揭示了房地产市场对金融和经济体系的重要影响。中国股票市场在全球金融海啸中经历了明显的下跌，中国经济以GDP计算也放缓了约2%-3%。尽管如此，中国不同城市的房地产市场似乎在十多年的时间里持续了几乎不间断的狂热。然而，中国住房市场的结构和动态研究较少。本文运用线性和非线性经济物理和计量经济学方法，对中国10个具有代表性的重点城市的住房市场进行了深入研究。我们发现一个共同的集体驱动力，占96.5%的房价增长，表明在中国住房市场非常高的系统性风险。十大城市可以划分为俱乐部，同一俱乐部内的城市房价呈现出明显的趋同性。不同方法的结果基本一致。确定的城市俱乐部也符合城市等级的传统分类。一线城市的房价上涨最快，三四线城市的房价上涨最慢，这说明房价在不同城市之间的扩散可能存在连锁反应。
英文摘要：
The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a markedly fall during the global financial tsunami and China's economy has also slowed down by about 2\%-3\% when measured in GDP. Nevertheless, the housing markets in diverse Chinese cities seemed to continue the almost nonstop mania for more than ten years. However, the structure and dynamics of the Chinese housing market are less studied. Here we perform an extensive study of the Chinese housing market by analyzing ten representative key cities based on both linear and nonlinear econophysical and econometric methods. We identify a common collective driving force which accounts for 96.5\% of the house price growth, indicating very high systemic risk in the Chinese housing market. The ten key cities can be categorized into clubs and the house prices of the cities in the same club exhibit an evident convergence. These findings from different methods are basically consistent with each other. The identified city clubs are also consistent with the conventional classification of city tiers. The house prices of the first-tier cities grow the fastest, and those of the third- and fourth-tier cities rise the slowest, which illustrates the possible presence of a ripple effect in the diffusion of house prices in different cities.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
