经验社会生态系统的广义建模
Generalized modeling of empirical social-ecological systems
摘要：
由于生态系统的复杂性以及个人和集体人类行为的复杂性，社会生态系统的建模是困难的。社会生态系统的关键组成部分往往被过分简化或忽略。广义建模是一种动态系统方法，可以克服其中的一些挑战。它可以严格分析定性系统动态，如政权转移，尽管不完全的知识模型的组成过程。在这里，我们回顾广义建模，并使用最近的研究波罗的海鳕鱼渔业的繁荣和崩溃，以证明其应用模型的实证社会生态系统的动态。这些经验应用需要新的分析方法，以适应更大，更复杂的广义模型。广义建模是一个有前途的工具，快速发展的数学严谨，基于过程的理解社会生态系统的动态，尽管有限的知识系统。
英文摘要：
Modeling social-ecological systems is difficult due to the complexity of ecosystems and of individual and collective human behavior. Key components of the social-ecological system are often over-simplified or omitted. Generalized modeling is a dynamical systems approach that can overcome some of these challenges. It can rigorously analyze qualitative system dynamics such as regime shifts despite incomplete knowledge of the model's constituent processes. Here, we review generalized modeling and use a recent study on the Baltic Sea cod fishery's boom and collapse to demonstrate its application to modeling the dynamics of empirical social-ecological systems. These empirical applications demand new methods of analysis suited to larger, more complicated generalized models. Generalized modeling is a promising tool for rapidly developing mathematically rigorous, process-based understanding of a social-ecological system's dynamics despite limited knowledge of the system.
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