口碑在自愿接种计划中的作用:博弈论方法
Role of word-of-mouth for programs of voluntary vaccination: A game-theoretic approach
摘要:
我们提出了一个模型描述口碑(WoM)和自愿接种控制的流行动力学之间的协同反馈。我们结合了一个博弈论模型的传播WoM和房室模型描述$SIR$疾病动态的存在下,自愿接种疫苗的计划。我们评估和比较了两种情况,这取决于WoM传播的内容:(1)疫苗广告,无论流行病是否正在进行,都可能发生;(2)流行病状态,特别是疾病流行。了解这两种战略之间的协同作用对于组织自愿接种疫苗运动可能特别重要。我们发现,在流行病的初始阶段,疫苗接种率更多地取决于疫苗广告,而不是流行病状态。随着疫情的发展,疫情状况对疫苗接种越来越重要,大大加速了疫苗接种,实现了稳定的疫苗接种覆盖率。
英文摘要:
We propose a model describing the synergetic feedback between word-of-mouth (WoM) and epidemic dynamics controlled by voluntary vaccination. We combine a game-theoretic model for the spread of WoM and a compartmental model describing $SIR$ disease dynamics in the presence of a program of voluntary vaccination. We evaluate and compare two scenarios, depending on what WoM disseminates: (1) vaccine advertising, which may occur whether or not an epidemic is ongoing and (2) epidemic status, notably disease prevalence. Understanding the synergy between the two strategies could be particularly important for organizing voluntary vaccination campaigns. We find that, in the initial phase of an epidemic, vaccination uptake is determined more by vaccine advertising than the epidemic status. As the epidemic progresses, epidemic status become increasingly important for vaccination uptake, considerably accelerating vaccination uptake toward a stable vaccination coverage.
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