潜在危险小行星（86039）1999 NC43与车里雅宾斯克流星体之间的联系
Link between the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (86039) 1999 NC43 and the Chelyabinsk meteoroid tenuous
摘要：
我们探索了车里雅宾斯克流星体和潜在危险小行星（86039）1999 NC 43之间的统计和成分联系，以研究Borovička等人（2013）提出的关系。通过详细的计算，我们确认车里雅宾斯克撞击物的轨道非常接近1999 NC 43。我们发现这种情况发生的概率约为（1-3）x 10-4。从车里雅宾斯克撞击物确实与1999 NC 43分离的观点来看，我们运行了一个前向概率计算，这是一个独立的统计检验。然而，我们发现这种情况不太可能在（10-3 -10-2）水平。我们还验证了Chelyabinska和1999 NC 43之间的成分联系。对车里雅宾斯克（LL球粒陨石）和（8）弗洛拉（假定的LL球粒陨石母族中最大的成员）的矿物学分析表明，它们的橄榄石和辉石化学成分与LL球粒陨石相似。对1999年NC 43的类似分析表明，其橄榄石和辉石的化学成分更类似于L型钙钛矿，而不是LL型钙钛矿（如车里雅宾斯克）。我们还在两次显灵（2000年，2014年）期间对1999 NC 43进行了54个夜晚的光度观测。1999年NC 43的光变曲线类似于短轴模式下的平均摆动角为20-30度的翻转器的模拟光变曲线。虽然非主轴旋转激发的机制尚不清楚，但我们可以排除小行星在其母体破裂时形成的可能性，因为小行星碎片在灾难性破裂时的旋转不太可能几乎完全停止。考虑到所有这些事实，我们发现车里雅宾斯克流星体和小行星1999 NC 43之间的联系是不可能的。
英文摘要：
We explored the statistical and compositional link between Chelyabinsk meteoroid and potentially hazardous asteroid (86039) 1999 NC43 to investigate their proposed relation proposed by Borovička et al. (2013). Using detailed computation we confirm that the orbit of the Chelyabinsk impactor is anomalously close to 1999 NC43. We find about (1-3) x 10-4 likelihood of that to happen by chance. Taking the standpoint that the Chelyabinsk impactor indeed separated from 1999 NC43 by a cratering or rotational fission event, we run a forward probability calculation, which is an independent statistical test. However, we find this scenario is unlikely at the about (10-3 -10-2) level. We also verified compositional link between Chelyabinska and 1999NC43. Mineralogical analysis of Chelyabinsk (LL chondrite) and (8) Flora (the largest member of the presumed LL chondrite parent family) shows that their olivine and pyroxene chemistries are similar to LL chondrites. Similar analysis of 1999 NC43 shows that its olivine and pyroxene chemistries are more similar to L chondrites than LL chondrites (like Chelyabinsk). We also took photometric observations of 1999 NC43 over 54 nights during two apparitions (2000, 2014). The lightcurve of 1999 NC43 resembles simulated lightcurves of tumblers in Short-Axis Mode with the mean wobbling angle 20-30 deg. While, a mechanism of the non-principal axis rotation excitation is unclear, we can rule out the formation of asteroid in disruption of its parent body as a plausible cause, as it is unlikely that the rotation of an asteroid fragment from catastrophic disruption would be nearly completely halted. Considering all these facts, we find the proposed link between the Chelyabinsk meteoroid and the asteroid 1999 NC43 to be unlikely.
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