Calibration of conditional composite likelihood for Bayesian inference on Gibbs random fields
Université Montpellier（蒙彼利埃大学）；University College Dublin（都柏林大学学院）
Julien Stoehr, Nial Friel
备注：
JMLR Workshop and Conference Proceedings, 18th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), San Diego, California, USA, 9-12 May 2015 (Vol. 38, pp. 921-929). arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1207.5758
发表信息：
Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, PMLR 38:921-929, 2015
Gibbs random fields play an important role in statistics, however, the resulting likelihood is typically unavailable due to an intractable normalizing constant. Composite likelihoods offer a principled means to construct useful approximations. This paper provides a mean to calibrate the posterior distribution resulting from using a composite likelihood and illustrate its performance in several examples.
The current standard Bayesian approach to model calibration, which assigns a Gaussian process prior to the discrepancy term, often suffers from issues of unidentifiability and computational complexity and instability. When the goal is to quantify uncertainty in physical parameters for extrapolative prediction, then there is no need to perform inference on the discrepancy term. With this in mind, we introduce Gibbs posteriors as an alternative Bayesian method for model calibration, which updates the prior with a loss function connecting the data to the parameter. The target of inference is the …
PAC-Bayesian algorithms and Gibbs posteriors are gaining popularity due to their robustness against model misspecification even when Bayesian inference is inconsistent. The PAC-Bayesian alpha-posterior is a generalization of the standard Bayes posterior which can be tempered with a parameter alpha to handle inconsistency. Data driven methods for tuning alpha have been proposed but are still few, and are often computationally heavy. Additionally, the adequacy of these methods in cases where we use variational approximations instead of exact alpha-posteriors is not clear. This narrows their usag…
Real-world problems, often couched as machine learning applications, involve quantities of interest that have real-world meaning, independent of any statistical model. To avoid potential model misspecification bias or over-complicating the problem formulation, a direct, model-free approach is desired. The traditional Bayesian framework relies on a model for the data-generating process so, apparently, the desired direct, model-free, posterior-probabilistic inference is out of reach. Fortunately, likelihood functions are not the only means of linking data and quantities of interest. Loss functio…
A composite likelihood is a non-genuine likelihood function that allows to make inference on limited aspects of a model, such as marginal or conditional distributions. Composite likelihoods are not proper likelihoods and need therefore calibration for their use in inference, from both a frequentist and a Bayesian perspective. The maximizer to the composite likelihood can serve as an estimator and its variance is assessed by means of a suitably defined sandwich matrix. In the Bayesian setting, the composite likelihood can be adjusted by means of magnitude and curvature methods. Magnitude method…
We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights. Building on the work of Ranjan, R. and Gneiting, T. (2010) and Gneiting, T. and Ranjan, R. (2013), we use infinite beta mixtures for the calibration. The proposed Bayesian nonparametric approach takes advantage of the flexibility of Dirichlet process mixtures to achieve any continuous deformation of linearly combined predictive distributions. The inference procedu…
Gibbs point processes (GPPs) constitute a large and flexible class of spatial point processes with explicit dependence between the points. They can model attractive as well as repulsive point patterns. Feature selection procedures are an important topic in high-dimensional statistical modeling. In this paper, composite likelihood approach regularized with convex and non-convex penalty functions is proposed to handle statistical inference for possibly high-dimensional inhomogeneous GPPs. The composite likelihood incorporates both the pseudo-likelihood and the logistic composite likelihood. We p…
Data and Statistical Sciences, AbbVie（AbbVie 数据与统计科学）；Department of Statistics, Brigham Young University（杨百翰大学统计系）；Department of Statistics, University of California, Santa Cruz（加州大学圣克鲁兹分校统计系）
Calibration-guided data fusion: A framework for understanding data contribution in multi-source inference through efficient Bayesian optimization with application to virus dynamics parameter estimation
Independent Researcher（独立研究者）；Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland（赫尔辛基大学数学与统计系）；Finnish Center for Artificial Intelligence (FCAI), Espoo, Finland（芬兰人工智能中心）；RIKEN Center for Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences (iTHEMS), Wako, Japan（理化学研究所跨学科理论与数学科学中心）
Inference on the minimum clinically important difference, or MCID, is an important practical problem in medicine. The basic idea is that a treatment being statistically significant may not lead to an improvement in the patients' well-being. The MCID is defined as a threshold such that, if a diagnostic measure exceeds this threshold, then the patients are more likely to notice an improvement. Typical formulations use an underspecified model, which makes a genuine Bayesian solution out of reach. Here, for a challenging personalized MCID problem, where the practically-significant threshold depend…
