预测埃博拉病毒在利比里亚传播的灭绝是由于缓解战略
Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies
摘要：
埃博拉病毒正在整个西非蔓延，造成数千人死亡。为了量化控制传播的不同策略的有效性，我们开发了一个数学模型，其中埃博拉病毒通过利比里亚的传播是由县之间的旅行引起的。对于埃博拉病毒传播的最初几个月，我们发现，我们的模型预测的疾病到达各县的时间与世界卫生组织的数据是一致的，但我们也发现，减少流动性不足以遏制疫情，因为它将埃博拉病毒到达每个县的时间推迟了几周。我们研究了两种情况下增加安全埋葬和有效住院治疗的战略的效果：（i）一种是在2014年7月中旬实施的，（ii）一种是在8月中旬-这是利比里亚开始强有力干预的实际时间。我们发现，如果情况（一）已经进行了流行病的寿命将缩短三个月，受感染的个人总数比情况（二）减少80%。我们在情景（ii）下的预测是，蔓延将在2015年春季中期停止。
英文摘要：
The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August---which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80\% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015.
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