无线网络中节点影响在客户流失中的作用
The Role of Peer Influence in Churn in Wireless Networks
摘要:
用户流失仍然是无线运营商面临的最大挑战。这些运营商需要了解客户流失的决定因素,以便自信地应用有效的保留策略,以确保其盈利能力和增长。在本文中,我们看看同行的影响,流失的影响,我们试图解开它从其他影响,驱动同时流失的朋友,但不涉及到同行的影响。我们从一家主要无线运营商的大型数据集中随机抽取了大约1万名用户,分析了10个月的时间。我们应用生存模型和广义倾向得分来确定同伴影响的作用。我们发现,当朋友们这样做时,流失的倾向会增加,当许多强大的朋友流失时,这种倾向会增加得更多。因此,我们的研究结果表明,流失管理者应该考虑旨在防止群体流失的策略。我们还表明,生存模型未能解开同质性从同侪影响高估同侪影响的效果。
英文摘要:
Subscriber churn remains a top challenge for wireless carriers. These carriers need to understand the determinants of churn to confidently apply effective retention strategies to ensure their profitability and growth. In this paper, we look at the effect of peer influence on churn and we try to disentangle it from other effects that drive simultaneous churn across friends but that do not relate to peer influence. We analyze a random sample of roughly 10 thousand subscribers from large dataset from a major wireless carrier over a period of 10 months. We apply survival models and generalized propensity score to identify the role of peer influence. We show that the propensity to churn increases when friends do and that it increases more when many strong friends churn. Therefore, our results suggest that churn managers should consider strategies aimed at preventing group churn. We also show that survival models fail to disentangle homophily from peer influence over-estimating the effect of peer influence.
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