全球社会经济体系的结构稳定性如何？
How structurally stable are global socioeconomic systems?
摘要：
社会经济系统的稳定性分析一直集中在回答当系统处于给定的定量状态时，小扰动是否会将系统永久地推向不同的定量状态。然而，社会经济系统的数量状态通常是不断变化的。因此，一个关键的稳定性问题，已经研究不足的是如何强大的系统本身的条件可以改变之前，系统移动到一个定性的不同行为，即，系统的结构稳定性。在这里，我们引入了一个框架来研究竞争资源的代理之间的相互作用网络所形成的社会经济系统的结构稳定性。我们测量系统的结构稳定性，作为与所有组成主体可以跨时间自我维持的定性行为相容的资源的分布和可用性的条件范围。为了说明我们的框架，我们研究了一个经验表示的全球社会经济体系所形成的国家共享和竞争的跨国公司作为资源的代理。我们证明了系统的结构稳定性与竞争水平和资源分布的异质性水平呈负相关。重要的是，我们表明，所观察到的全球社会经济系统的定性行为是高度敏感的资源分配的变化。我们认为，这项工作提供了一个方法论基础，为不断变化的条件下的社会经济系统制定可持续战略。
英文摘要：
The stability analysis of socioeconomic systems has been centered on answering whether small perturbations when a system is in a given quantitative state will push the system permanently to a different quantitative state. However, typically the quantitative state of socioeconomic systems is subject to constant change. Therefore, a key stability question that has been under-investigated is how strong the conditions of a system itself can change before the system moves to a qualitatively different behavior, i.e., how structurally stable the systems is. Here, we introduce a framework to investigate the structural stability of socioeconomic systems formed by the network of interactions among agents competing for resources. We measure the structural stability of the system as the range of conditions in the distribution and availability of resources compatible with the qualitative behavior in which all the constituent agents can be self-sustained across time. To illustrate our framework, we study an empirical representation of the global socioeconomic system formed by countries sharing and competing for multinational companies used as proxy for resources. We demonstrate that the structural stability of the system is inversely associated with the level of competition and the level of heterogeneity in the distribution of resources. Importantly, we show that the qualitative behavior of the observed global socioeconomic system is highly sensitive to changes in the distribution of resources. We believe this work provides a methodological basis to develop sustainable strategies for socioeconomic systems subject to constantly changing conditions.
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