麻疹疫苗接种区域异质性对麻疹暴发的影响--以法国为例
The Effects of Regional Vaccination Heterogeneity on Measles Outbreaks with France as a Case Study
摘要：
风疹病毒，通常称为麻疹，是全世界儿童中疫苗可预防死亡的主要原因之一。尽管有效的疫苗已经广泛存在，但情况仍然如此。即使在发达国家，消除工作也做得不够，最近在欧洲爆发的疫情就是明证，2010年报告的病例超过30 000例。2008-2011年法国的一系列麻疹疫情特别令人感兴趣，因为有记录的区域疫苗接种覆盖率存在差异。异质性疫苗覆盖率对疾病传播的影响是一个广泛的兴趣和本研究的重点。引入了一个敏感-暴露-不敏感-暴露（SEIR）多斑块流行病学模型，该模型考虑了疫苗接种率和混合的区域差异。通过对两斑块系统的数学分析，可以更好地理解多斑块系统的行为。生成数值模拟，以帮助系统的定性动力学的研究。最近法国爆发的数据被用来生成参数值，并帮助将理论与应用联系起来。我们的研究结果表明，异质性疫苗接种覆盖率增加控制繁殖数量相比，可比的同质覆盖。
英文摘要：
The rubeola virus, commonly known as measles, is one of the major causes of vaccine-preventable deaths among children worldwide. This is the case despite the fact that an effective vaccine is widely available. Even in developed countries elimination efforts have fallen short as seen by recent outbreaks in Europe, which had over 30,000 cases reported in 2010. The string of measles outbreaks in France from 2008-2011 is of particular interest due to the documented disparity in regional vaccination coverage. The impact of heterogeneous vaccine coverage on disease transmission is a broad interest and the focus of this study. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) multi-patch epidemiological model capturing the regional differences in vaccination rates and mixing is introduced. The mathematical analysis of a two-patch system is carried out to help our understanding of the behavior of multi-patch systems. Numerical simulations are generated to aid the study of the system's qualitative dynamics. Data from the recent French outbreaks were used to generate parameter values and to help connect theory with application. Our findings show that heterogeneous vaccination coverage increases controlled reproduction number compared to comparable homogeneous coverage.
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