疾病传播率的重建：对麻疹、登革热和流感的应用
Reconstruction of disease transmission rates: applications to measles, dengue, and influenza
摘要：
传播率是了解传染病传播的关键。使用隔室模型的框架，我们引入了一种简单的方法，使我们能够直接从发病率或疾病相关死亡率数据重建传播率的时间序列。重建利用微分方程，它模拟了感染阶段和菌株的时间演变。由于该方法对初值敏感，因此能得到渐近正确的解。计算速度很快，时间复杂度为二次方。我们将重建应用于麻疹（英格兰和威尔士，1948-67），登革热（泰国，1982-99）和流感（美国，1910- 1927）。麻疹的例子提供了与早期工作的比较。在这里，我们重新调查报告更正，包括和排除人口统计信息。登革热的例子涉及泰国在减少登革出血热方面的病媒控制措施的失败。两个相互竞争的机制负责：应变相互作用和人口转变。我们的重建表明，这两种解释都是可能的，表明DHF病例的增加与减少病媒计数导致的传播率下降一致。流感的例子集中在1918/19年的大流行，研究了入侵菌株的传播率演变。我们的分析表明，大流行毒株可能已经在人群中传播了许多个月，然后才由高度增加的传播事件引发大流行。
英文摘要：
Transmission rates are key in understanding the spread of infectious diseases. Using the framework of compartmental models, we introduce a simple method that enables us to reconstruct time series of transmission rates directly from incidence or disease-related mortality data. The reconstruction exploits differential equations, which model the time evolution of infective stages and strains. Being sensitive to initial values, the method produces asymptotically correct solutions. The computations are fast, with time complexity being quadratic. We apply the reconstruction to data of measles (England and Wales, 1948-67), dengue (Thailand, 1982-99), and influenza (U.S., 1910-27). The Measles example offers comparison with earlier work. Here we re-investigate reporting corrections, include and exclude demographic information. The dengue example deals with the failure of vector-control measures in reducing dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Thailand. Two competing mechanisms have been held responsible: strain interaction and demographic transitions. Our reconstruction reveals that both explanations are possible, showing that the increase in DHF cases is consistent with decreasing transmission rates resulting from reduced vector counts. The flu example focuses on the 1918/19 pandemic, examining the transmission rate evolution for an invading strain. Our analysis indicates that the pandemic strain could have circulated in the population for many months before the pandemic was initiated by an event of highly increased transmission.
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