In the big data era, scalability has become a crucial requirement for any useful computational model. Probabilistic graphical models are very useful for mining and discovering data insights, but they are not scalable enough to be suitable for big data problems. Bayesian Networks particularly demonstrate this limitation when their data is represented using few random variables while each random variable has a massive set of values. With hierarchical data - data that is arranged in a treelike structure with several levels - one would expect to see hundreds of thousands or millions of values distributed over even just a small number of levels. When modeling this kind of hierarchical data across large data sets, Bayesian networks become infeasible for representing the probability distributions for the following reasons: i) Each level represents a single random variable with hundreds of thousands of values, ii) The number of levels is usually small, so there are also few random variables, and iii) The structure of the network is predefined since the dependency is modeled top-down from each parent to each of its child nodes, so the network would contain a single linear path for the random variables from each parent to each child node. In this paper we present a scalable probabilistic graphical model to overcome these limitations for massive hierarchical data. We believe the proposed model will lead to an easily-scalable, more readable, and expressive implementation for problems that require probabilistic-based solutions for massive amounts of hierarchical data. We successfully applied this model to solve two different challenging probabilistic-based problems on massive hierarchical data sets for different domains, namely, bioinformatics and latent semantic discovery over search logs.
Graphical models in probability and statistics are a core concept in the area of probabilistic reasoning and probabilistic programming-graphical models include Bayesian networks and factor graphs. In this paper we develop a new model of mixed (nondeterministic/probabilistic) automata that subsumes both nondeterministic automata and graphical probabilistic models. Mixed Automata are equipped with parallel composition, simulation relation, and support message passing algorithms inherited from graphical probabilistic models. Segala's Probabilistic Automatacan be mapped to Mixed Automata.
Graphs are a powerful data structure to represent relational data and are widely used to describe complex real-world data structures. Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) have been well-developed in the past years to mathematically model real-world scenarios in compact graphical representations of distributions of variables. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are new inference methods developed in recent years and are attracting growing attention due to their effectiveness and flexibility in solving inference and learning problems over graph-structured data. These two powerful approaches have diffe…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；University of Milano - Bicocca（米兰比可卡大学）；SYSBIO Centre of Systems Biology（SYSBIO系统生物学中心）；Milan Center for Neuroscience（米兰神经科学中心）
Structural learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is a NP-hard problem, which is further complicated by many theoretical issues, such as the I-equivalence among different structures. In this work, we focus on a specific subclass of BNs, named Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks (SBCNs), which include specific structural constraints based on Suppes' probabilistic causation to efficiently model cumulative phenomena. Here we compare the performance, via extensive simulations, of various state-of-the-art search strategies, such as local search techniques and Genetic Algorithms, as well as of distinct regula…
Hanyang University（汉阳大学）；Baylor College of Medicine（贝勒医学院）；Rice University（莱斯大学）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Uber ATG Toronto（优步先进技术集团多伦多分部）；Vector Institute（向量研究所）；Canadian Institute for Advanced Research（加拿大高等研究院）
A fundamental computation for statistical inference and accurate decision-making is to compute the marginal probabilities or most probable states of task-relevant variables. Probabilistic graphical models can efficiently represent the structure of such complex data, but performing these inferences is generally difficult. Message-passing algorithms, such as belief propagation, are a natural way to disseminate evidence amongst correlated variables while exploiting the graph structure, but these algorithms can struggle when the conditional dependency graphs contain loops. Here we use Graph Neural…
We introduce factorize sum split product networks (FSPNs), a new class of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). FSPNs are designed to overcome the drawbacks of existing PGMs in terms of estimation accuracy and inference efficiency. Specifically, Bayesian networks (BNs) have low inference speed and performance of tree structured sum product networks(SPNs) significantly degrades in presence of highly correlated variables. FSPNs absorb their advantages by adaptively modeling the joint distribution of variables according to their dependence degree, so that one can simultaneously attain the two de…
School of Human Sciences & Technology, IE University（IE大学人文科学与技术学院）
We show how to apply Sobol's method of global sensitivity analysis to measure the influence exerted by a set of nodes' evidence on a quantity of interest expressed by a Bayesian network. Our method exploits the network structure so as to transform the problem of Sobol index estimation into that of marginalization inference. This way, we can efficiently compute indices for networks where brute-force or Monte Carlo based estimators for variance-based sensitivity analysis would require millions of costly samples. Moreover, our method gives exact results when exact inference is used, and also supp…
We propose a directed acyclic hypergraph framework for a probabilistic graphical model that we call Bayesian hypergraphs. The space of directed acyclic hypergraphs is much larger than the space of chain graphs. Hence Bayesian hypergraphs can model much finer factorizations than Bayesian networks or LWF chain graphs and provide simpler and more computationally efficient procedures for factorizations and interventions. Bayesian hypergraphs also allow a modeler to represent causal patterns of interaction such as Noisy-OR graphically (without additional annotations). We introduce global, local and…
Federal University of Technology - Paraná (UTFPR)（联邦理工大学-巴拉那州（UTFPR））；The University of Adelaide（阿德莱德大学）；Aalborg University（奥尔堡大学）
The Bayesian Optimisation Algorithm (BOA) is an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) that uses a Bayesian network as probabilistic graphical model (PGM). Determining the optimal Bayesian network structure given a solution sample is an NP-hard problem. This step should be completed at each iteration of BOA, resulting in a very time-consuming process. For this reason most implementations use greedy estimation algorithms such as K2. However, we show in this paper that significant changes in PGM structure do not occur so frequently, and can be particularly sparse at the end of evolution. A s…
University of Georgia（佐治亚大学）；Indiana University（印第安纳大学）
Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM) are very useful in the fields of machine learning and data mining. The crucial limitation of those models,however, is the scalability. The Bayesian Network, which is one of the most common PGMs used in machine learning and data mining, demonstrates this limitation when the training data consists of random variables, each of them has a large set of possible values. In the big data era, one would expect new extensions to the existing PGMs to handle the massive amount of data produced these days by computers, sensors and other electronic devices. With hierarch…
This paper introduces a novel approach to embed flow-based models with hierarchical structures. The proposed framework is named Variational Flow Graphical (VFG) Model. VFGs learn the representation of high dimensional data via a message-passing scheme by integrating flow-based functions through variational inference. By leveraging the expressive power of neural networks, VFGs produce a representation of the data using a lower dimension, thus overcoming the drawbacks of many flow-based models, usually requiring a high dimensional latent space involving many trivial variables. Aggregation nodes …
Model protection is vital when deploying Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for commercial services, due to the massive costs of training them. In this work, we propose a selective encryption (SE) algorithm to protect CNN models from unauthorized access, with a unique feature of providing hierarchical services to users. Our algorithm firstly selects important model parameters via the proposed Probabilistic Selection Strategy (PSS). It then encrypts the most important parameters with the designed encryption method called Distribution Preserving Random Mask (DPRM), so as to maximize the perfor…
Aiming at a comprehensive and concise tutorial survey, recap of variational inference and reinforcement learning with Probabilistic Graphical Models are given with detailed derivations. Reviews and comparisons on recent advances in deep reinforcement learning are made from various aspects. We offer detailed derivations to a taxonomy of Probabilistic Graphical Model and Variational Inference methods in deep reinforcement learning, which serves as a complementary material on top of the original contributions.
Inference in discrete graphical models with variational methods is difficult because of the inability to re-parameterize gradients of the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). Many sampling-based methods have been proposed for estimating these gradients, but they suffer from high bias or variance. In this paper, we propose a new approach that leverages the tractability of probabilistic circuit models, such as Sum Product Networks (SPN), to compute ELBO gradients exactly (without sampling) for a certain class of densities. In particular, we show that selective-SPNs are suitable as an expressive variatio…
Transfer learning where the behavior of extracting transferable knowledge from the source domain(s) and reusing this knowledge to target domain has become a research area of great interest in the field of artificial intelligence. Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) have been recognized as a powerful tool for modeling complex systems with many advantages, e.g., the ability to handle uncertainty and possessing good interpretability. Considering the success of these two aforementioned research areas, it seems natural to apply PGMs to transfer learning. However, although there are already some e…
DeepMind（深度思维）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
PGMax is an open-source Python package for (a) easily specifying discrete Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) as factor graphs; and (b) automatically running efficient and scalable loopy belief propagation (LBP) in JAX. PGMax supports general factor graphs with tractable factors, and leverages modern accelerators like GPUs for inference. Compared with existing alternatives, PGMax obtains higher-quality inference results with up to three orders-of-magnitude inference time speedups. PGMax additionally interacts seamlessly with the rapidly growing JAX ecosystem, opening up new research possibil…
Probabilistic Inference Modulo Theories (PIMT) is a recent framework that expands exact inference on graphical models to use richer languages that include arithmetic, equalities, and inequalities on both integers and real numbers. In this paper, we expand PIMT to a lifted version that also processes random functions and relations. This enhancement is achieved by adapting Inversion, a method from Lifted First-Order Probabilistic Inference literature, to also be modulo theories. This results in the first algorithm for exact probabilistic inference that efficiently and simultaneously exploits ran…
Integration of reinforcement learning and imitation learning is an important problem that has been studied for a long time in the field of intelligent robotics. Reinforcement learning optimizes policies to maximize the cumulative reward, whereas imitation learning attempts to extract general knowledge about the trajectories demonstrated by experts, i.e., demonstrators. Because each of them has their own drawbacks, methods combining them and compensating for each set of drawbacks have been explored thus far. However, many of the methods are heuristic and do not have a solid theoretical basis. I…
Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi（德里印度理工学院）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
An important approach for efficient inference in probabilistic graphical models exploits symmetries among objects in the domain. Symmetric variables (states) are collapsed into meta-variables (meta-states) and inference algorithms are run over the lifted graphical model instead of the flat one. Our paper extends existing definitions of symmetry by introducing the novel notion of contextual symmetry. Two states that are not globally symmetric, can be contextually symmetric under some specific assignment to a subset of variables, referred to as the context variables. Contextual symmetry subsumes…
Research Unit SAGE, National Engineering School of Sousse（苏塞国家工程学院 SAGE 研究单位）
Automatically recognizing the e-learning activities is an important task for improving the online learning process. Probabilistic graphical models such as hidden Markov models and conditional random fields have been successfully used in order to identify a Web users activity. For such models, the sequences of observation are crucial for training and inference processes. Despite the efficiency of these probabilistic graphical models in segmenting and labeling stochastic sequences, their performance is adversely affected by the imperfect quality of data used for the construction of sequences of …
Rail breaks are one of the most common causes of derailments internationally. This is no different for the South African Iron Ore line. Many rail breaks occur as a heavy-haul train passes over a crack, large defect or defective weld. In such cases, it is usually too late for the train to slow down in time to prevent a de-railment. Knowing the risk of a rail break occurring associated with a train passing over a section of rail allows for better implementation of maintenance initiatives and mitigating measures. In this paper the Ore Line's specific challenges are discussed and the currently ava…
One popular way for lifted inference in probabilistic graphical models is to first merge symmetric states into a single cluster (orbit) and then use these for downstream inference, via variations of orbital MCMC [Niepert, 2012]. These orbits are represented compactly using permutations over variables, and variable-value (VV) pairs, but they can miss several state symmetries in a domain. We define the notion of permutations over block-value (BV) pairs, where a block is a set of variables. BV strictly generalizes VV symmetries, and can compute many more symmetries for increasing block sizes. To …
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；The Jessara Group（杰萨拉集团）；University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
A unifying mathematical formulation is needed to move from one-off digital twins built through custom implementations to robust digital twin implementations at scale. This work proposes a probabilistic graphical model as a formal mathematical representation of a digital twin and its associated physical asset. We create an abstraction of the asset-twin system as a set of coupled dynamical systems, evolving over time through their respective state-spaces and interacting via observed data and control inputs. The formal definition of this coupled system as a probabilistic graphical model enables u…
Graphical models have been widely used in applications ranging from medical expert systems to natural language processing. Their popularity partly arises since they are intuitive representations of complex inter-dependencies among variables with efficient algorithms for performing computationally intensive inference in high-dimensional models. It is argued that the formalism is very useful for applications in the modelling of non-life insurance claims data. It is also shown that actuarial models in current practice can be expressed graphically to exploit the advantages of the approach. More ge…
Norwegian University of Science and Technology（挪威科技大学）；Aalborg University（奥尔堡大学）
In this paper, we discuss software design issues related to the development of parallel computational intelligence algorithms on multi-core CPUs, using the new Java 8 functional programming features. In particular, we focus on probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) and present the parallelisation of a collection of algorithms that deal with inference and learning of PGMs from data. Namely, maximum likelihood estimation, importance sampling, and greedy search for solving combinatorial optimisation problems. Through these concrete examples, we tackle the problem of defining efficient data structu…
Probabilistic graphical models are a powerful concept for modeling high-dimensional distributions. Besides modeling distributions, probabilistic graphical models also provide an elegant framework for performing statistical inference; because of the high-dimensional nature, however, one must often use approximate methods for this purpose. Belief propagation performs approximate inference, is efficient, and looks back on a long success-story. Yet, in most cases, belief propagation lacks any performance and convergence guarantees. Many realistic problems are presented by graphical models with loo…
The Bitcoin transaction graph is a public data structure organized as transactions between addresses, each associated with a logical entity. In this work, we introduce a complete probabilistic model of the Bitcoin Blockchain. We first formulate a set of conditional dependencies induced by the Bitcoin protocol at the block level and derive a corresponding fully observed graphical model of a Bitcoin block. We then extend the model to include hidden entity attributes such as the functional category of the associated logical agent and derive asymptotic bounds on the privacy properties implied by t…
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are on the road. To safely and efficiently interact with other road participants, AVs have to accurately predict the behavior of surrounding vehicles and plan accordingly. Such prediction should be probabilistic, to address the uncertainties in human behavior. Such prediction should also be interactive, since the distribution over all possible trajectories of the predicted vehicle depends not only on historical information, but also on future plans of other vehicles that interact with it. To achieve such interaction-aware predictions, we propose a probabilistic predic…
Radboud University（拉德堡德大学）；Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）
Markov decision processes are a ubiquitous formalism for modelling systems with non-deterministic and probabilistic behavior. Verification of these models is subject to the famous state space explosion problem. We alleviate this problem by exploiting a hierarchical structure with repetitive parts. This structure not only occurs naturally in robotics, but also in probabilistic programs describing, e.g., network protocols. Such programs often repeatedly call a subroutine with similar behavior. In this paper, we focus on a local case, in which the subroutines have a limited effect on the overall …
Max-Planck-Institut für Informatik（马克斯·普朗克信息学研究所）；Universität des Saarlandes（萨尔大学）
One of the major hurdles preventing the full exploitation of information from online communities is the widespread concern regarding the quality and credibility of user-contributed content. Prior works in this domain operate on a static snapshot of the community, making strong assumptions about the structure of the data (e.g., relational tables), or consider only shallow features for text classification. To address the above limitations, we propose probabilistic graphical models that can leverage the joint interplay between multiple factors in online communities --- like user interactions, com…
