社会个人主义对百年烟草使用的影响：吸烟流行率的建模
The influence of societal individualism on a century of tobacco use: modelling the prevalence of smoking
AI总结：
本文构建了一个社会动力学数学模型，结合25国百年吸烟数据，揭示个人主义文化会加速吸烟采纳与戒烟，为公共卫生干预提供定量依据。
摘要：
据预测，烟草吸烟将在2014年导致全球约600万人死亡。有效应对这一流行病需要深入理解吸烟行为如何传播和改变。在此，我们提出一个新的数学模型，用于描述导致吸烟在人群中传播的社会动力学。我们的模型预测，更个人主义的社会将表现出更快的吸烟采纳和戒烟速度。来自一个新的、跨越百年的25国吸烟流行率综合数据集的证据支持该模型，并对世界各地的公共卫生干预具有直接意义。我们的结果表明，社会之间的文化差异可以可测量地影响社会传播过程的时间动态，并且这些效应可以通过与观测数据相匹配的定量数学模型来理解。
英文摘要：
Smoking of tobacco is predicted to cause approximately six million deaths worldwide in 2014. Responding effectively to this epidemic requires a thorough understanding of how smoking behaviour is transmitted and modified. Here, we present a new mathematical model of the social dynamics that cause cigarette smoking to spread in a population. Our model predicts that more individualistic societies will show faster adoption and cessation of smoking. Evidence from a new century-long composite data set on smoking prevalence in 25 countries supports the model, with direct implications for public health interventions around the world. Our results suggest that differences in culture between societies can measurably affect the temporal dynamics of a social spreading process, and that these effects can be understood via a quantitative mathematical model matched to observations.
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