We propose a novel mathematical model for the activity of microbloggers during an external, event-driven spike. The model leads to a testable prediction of who would become most active if a spike were to take place. This type of information is of great interest to commercial organisations, governments and charities, as it identifies key players who can be targeted with information in real time when the network is most receptive. The model takes account of the fact that dynamic interactions evolve over an underlying, static network that records who listens to whom. The model is based on the assumption that, in the case where the entire community has become aware of an external news event, a key driver of activity is the motivation to participate by responding to incoming messages. We test the model on a large scale Twitter conversation concerning the appointment of a UK Premier League football club manager. We also present further results for a Bundesliga football match, a marketing event and a television programme. In each case we find that exploiting the underlying connectivity structure improves the prediction of who will be active during a spike. We also show how the half-life of a spike in activity can be quantified in terms of the network size and the typical response rate.
We present a contribution to the debate on the predictability of social events using big data analytics. We focus on the elimination of contestants in the American Idol TV shows as an example of a well defined electoral phenomenon that each week draws millions of votes in the USA. We provide evidence that Twitter activity during the time span defined by the TV show airing and the voting period following it, correlates with the contestants ranking and allows the anticipation of the voting outcome. Furthermore, the fraction of Tweets that contain geolocation information allows us to map the fanb…
We study the evolution of long-lived controversial debates as manifested on Twitter from 2011 to 2016. Specifically, we explore how the structure of interactions and content of discussion varies with the level of collective attention, as evidenced by the number of users discussing a topic. Spikes in the volume of users typically correspond to external events that increase the public attention on the topic -- as, for instance, discussions about `gun control' often erupt after a mass shooting. This work is the first to study the dynamic evolution of polarized online debates at such scale. By emp…
Deceased public figures are often said to live on in collective memory. We quantify this phenomenon by tracking mentions of 2,362 public figures in English-language online news and social media (Twitter) one year before and after death. We measure the sharp spike and rapid decay of attention following death and model collective memory as a composition of communicative and cultural memory. Clustering reveals four patterns of post-mortem memory, and regression analysis shows that boosts in media attention are largest for pre-mortem popular anglophones who died a young, unnatural death; that long…
Purpose. We present an approach for forecasting mental health conditions and emotions of a given population during the COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina based on language expressions used in social media. This approach permits anticipating high prevalence periods in short- to medium-term time horizons. Design. Mental health conditions and emotions are captured via markers, which link social media contents with lexicons. First, we build descriptive timelines for decision makers to monitor the evolution of markers, and their correlation with crisis events. Second, we model the timelines as time ser…
This paper introduces LABurst, a general technique for identifying key moments, or moments of high impact, in social media streams without the need for domain-specific information or seed keywords. We leverage machine learning to model temporal patterns around bursts in Twitter's unfiltered public sample stream and build a classifier to identify tokens experiencing these bursts. We show LABurst performs competitively with existing burst detection techniques while simultaneously providing insight into and detection of unanticipated moments. To demonstrate our approach's potential, we compare tw…
Many in the US were reluctant to report their COVID-19 cases at the height of the pandemic (e.g., for fear of missing work or other obligations due to quarantine mandates). Other methods such as using public social media data can therefore help augment current approaches to surveilling pandemics. This study evaluated the effectiveness of using social media data as a data source for tracking public health pandemics. There have been several attempts at using social media data from platforms like Twitter for analyzing the COVID-19 pandemic. While these provide a multitude of useful insights, new …
As of writing this paper, COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) has spread to more than 220 countries and territories. Following the outbreak, the pandemic's seriousness has made people more active on social media, especially on the microblogging platforms such as Twitter and Weibo. The pandemic-specific discourse has remained on-trend on these platforms for months now. Previous studies have confirmed the contributions of such socially generated conversations towards situational awareness of crisis events. The early forecasts of cases are essential to authorities to estimate the requirements of …
To track online emotional expressions of the Austrian population close to real-time during the COVID-19 pandemic, we build a self-updating monitor of emotion dynamics using digital traces from three different data sources. This enables decision makers and the interested public to assess issues such as the attitude towards counter-measures taken during the pandemic and the possible emergence of a (mental) health crisis early on. We use web scraping and API access to retrieve data from the news platform derstandard.at, Twitter and a chat platform for students. We document the technical details o…
Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or Internet memes shared via social media. Neuron spikes stimulate or inhibit spike activity in other neurons. Stock market shocks can trigger a contagion of volatility throughout a financial network. In these and other examples, only individual events associated with network nodes are observed, usually without knowledge of the underlying dynamic relationships …
Detecting Narrative Shifts through Persistent Structures: A Topological Analysis of Media Discourse
Department of Cyber Intelligence and Data Science（网络智能与数据科学系）；Biological and Computational Intelligence Center（生物与计算智能中心）；National Intelligence University（国家智能大学）
There has been a huge spike in the usage of social media platforms during the COVID-19 lockdowns. These lockdown periods have resulted in a set of new cybercrimes, thereby allowing attackers to victimise social media users with a range of threats. This paper performs a large-scale study to investigate the impact of a pandemic and the lockdown periods on the security and privacy of social media users. We analyse 10.6 Million COVID-related tweets from 533 days of data crawling and investigate users' security and privacy behaviour in three different periods (i.e., before, during, and after the lo…
Social media plays a crucial role in today's society. It results in paradigm changes in how people relate and communicate, convey and exchange ideas. Moreover, social media has evolved into critical knowledge networks for consumers and also affects decision-making. In elections, social media became an integral part of political campaigning to reach a greater audience and gather more support. The 2019 Lok Sabha election saw a massive spike in the usage of online social media platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, and WhatsApp; with every major political party launching its own organized social me…
This work is motivated by the dearth of research that deals with social media content created from the Basque Country or written in Basque language. While social fingerprints during events have been analysed in numerous other locations and languages, this article aims to fill this gap so as to initiate a much-needed research area within the Basque scientific community. To this end, we describe the methodology we followed to collect tweets posted during the quintessential exhibition race in support of the Basque language. We also present the results of the analysis of these tweets. Our analysis…
Following the 2016 US presidential election, there has been an increased focus on politically-motivated manipulation of mass-user behavior on social media platforms. Since a large volume of political discussion occurs on these platforms, identifying malicious activity and coordinated campaigns is essential to ensuring a robust democratic environment. Twitter has become a critical communication channel for politicians and other public figures, enabling them to maintain a direct relationship with supporters. However, the platform has been fertile ground for large-scale malicious activity. As the…
