基于网络的现代流行病模型的动态控制
Dynamic control of modern, network-based epidemic models
摘要：
在本文中，我们的第一个步骤，以弥合经典控制理论和现代，基于网络的流行病模型之间的差距。特别是，我们应用非线性模型预测控制（NMPC）的成对ODE模型，我们使用非平凡的切触结构上的易感染性传染病（SIS）的流行病建模。虽然传统的流行病控制集中在疫苗接种、检疫和快速诊断等方面，但我们的新设置使我们能够通过改变人群中的接触网络来实现控制。此外，控制的理想结果是根除疾病，同时保持网络的良好连接。本文给出了一个全面和详细的数值研究的影响和相互作用的系统和控制参数对系统的可控性。分析表明，对于某些设置参数，它是可能的，以确定临界控制界限以上的系统是可控的。我们预见，我们的方法可以扩展到更现实或基于模拟的模型，目的是将这些应用到现实世界的情况。
英文摘要：
In this paper we make the first steps to bridge the gap between classic control theory and modern, network-based epidemic models. In particular, we apply nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) to a pairwise ODE model which we use to model a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic on non-trivial contact structures. While classic control of epidemics concentrates on aspects such as vaccination, quarantine and fast diagnosis, our novel setup allows us to deliver control by altering the contact network within the population. Moreover, the ideal outcome of control is to eradicate the disease while keeping the network well connected. The paper gives a thorough and detailed numerical investigation of the impact and interaction of system and control parameters on the controllability of the system. The analysis reveals, that for certain set parameters it is possible to identify critical control bounds above which the system is controllable. We foresee, that our approach can be extended to even more realistic or simulation-based models with the aim to apply these to real-world situations.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
