Minsky金融不稳定、尺度间反馈、逾渗与马歇尔-瓦尔拉斯非均衡
Minsky Financial Instability, Interscale Feedback, Percolation and Marshall-Walras Disequilibrium
摘要：
我们研究分析和数值明斯基不稳定性的自上而下，自下而上和对等的正反馈循环的组合。点对点的相互作用表现为企业之间的连接所形成的网络的链接，传染导致雪崩和渗透相变传播通过这些链接。自上而下、自下而上反馈回路中的全局参数是利率。在明斯基时刻之前，在明斯基贷款加速器阶段，代表个体企业微观状态的相关底部参数是贷款数量。在明斯基时刻之后，在明斯基危机加速器阶段，相关的底部参数是庞氏单位数量/失败数量，默认值。我们在一个类似于马歇尔-瓦尔拉斯图的数量-价格市场均衡图（其中利率是价格的模拟）上表示自上而下和自下而上的相互作用。于是，明斯基不稳定性仅仅是不动点（供给和需求曲线的交点）不稳定（排斥）的结果。在网络效应的存在下，人们得到一个以上的固定点和几个动态的制度（阶段）。我们描述了它们及其对理解、预测和引导经济不稳定性的影响。
英文摘要：
We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections between firms, contagion leading to avalanches and percolation phase transitions propagating across these links. The global parameter in the top-bottom, bottom-up feedback loop is the interest rate. Before the Minsky moment, in the Minsky Loans Accelerator stage, the relevant bottom parameter representing the individual firms micro-states is the quantity of loans. After the Minsky moment, in the Minsky Crisis Accelerator stage, the relevant bottom parameters are the number of ponzi units / quantity of failures, defaults. We represent the top-bottom, bottom-up interactions on a plot similar to the Marshal-Walras diagram for quantity-price market equilibrium (where the interest rate is the analog of the price). The Minsky instability is then simply emerging as a consequence of the fixed point (the intersection of the supply and demand curves) being unstable (repulsive). In the presence of network effects, one obtains more than one fixed point and a few dynamic regimes (phases). We describe them and their implications for understanding, predicting and steering economic instability.
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